The War
- Thread starter NCHawker
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Westernhawk
Well-Known Member
I don't think Dear Leader has thought about the consequences beyond the initial stages of this war. Dear Leader has also changed the rationale for this war 4 or 5 times. Congress did not approve. There are a ton of unintended consequences and our blowhards in charge do not know any better, as they have apparently not studied history.
Economically, we will see supply shocks with LNG and oil.
Politically, there could be a number of negative consequences, including support for Iran by Russia and China. Also, we could see (or even expect) an uptick in worldwide terrorism.
Can someone refresh me on the criticality of this war for the US? It's costing a billion dollars per day.
Economically, we will see supply shocks with LNG and oil.
Politically, there could be a number of negative consequences, including support for Iran by Russia and China. Also, we could see (or even expect) an uptick in worldwide terrorism.
Can someone refresh me on the criticality of this war for the US? It's costing a billion dollars per day.
Westernhawk
Well-Known Member
And don't wear your own merch (stupid baseball cap) when you are honoring dead soldiers, you creep.
Fryowa
Administrator
I'm not a partisan, nor am I rabidly for or against this war. I do see both sides regardless of who the leaders of the countries are or what their true unadvertised intent may be. I'm not going to discuss my opinion on it, nor is there any thing anyone here could say to sway or influence my opinion. So in that respect if anyone wants to tell me their views and why I should lean that way, I could not care less and said person can save the oxygen spent typing it out.
Now with that outta the way, if you're 100% honest, is your energy best spent being angry and ranting and raving about shit a bunch of old rich men with no connection to reality are doing, especially when none of the energy you're spending can do a single thing about it? Or is your energy better spent talking a walk through the park and looking at the trees, going to see your kids or grandkids, or appreciating the fact that you don't have cancer or some other terminal disease, or going and sitting with someone in a nursing home for a couple hours? Maybe if everyone did that there wouldn't be fighting going on.
You may think you can have some sort of influence over what a President or Ayatollah or Prime Minister does by yelling loud enough or voting or emailing your local congressperson, but you don't. They're going to do what they're going to do and we're along for the ride. Political activism is a total farce unless you're a billionaire and I'm guessing you aren't.
Take a breath. Call your mom and tell her you love her, and then tell her, "Man, I'm glad I get to call and talk to you instead of living in Iran or wherever. How bout if us and the kids come over and bring you supper?" Pick your kids up from school and talk to them about their day. Control what you can control and don't waste your energy on shit like this. Appreciate your current state because maybe in a couple years you'll be dead or a war might happen here. Either way you have no say in it and all our clocks are tickin'.
Now with that outta the way, if you're 100% honest, is your energy best spent being angry and ranting and raving about shit a bunch of old rich men with no connection to reality are doing, especially when none of the energy you're spending can do a single thing about it? Or is your energy better spent talking a walk through the park and looking at the trees, going to see your kids or grandkids, or appreciating the fact that you don't have cancer or some other terminal disease, or going and sitting with someone in a nursing home for a couple hours? Maybe if everyone did that there wouldn't be fighting going on.
You may think you can have some sort of influence over what a President or Ayatollah or Prime Minister does by yelling loud enough or voting or emailing your local congressperson, but you don't. They're going to do what they're going to do and we're along for the ride. Political activism is a total farce unless you're a billionaire and I'm guessing you aren't.
Take a breath. Call your mom and tell her you love her, and then tell her, "Man, I'm glad I get to call and talk to you instead of living in Iran or wherever. How bout if us and the kids come over and bring you supper?" Pick your kids up from school and talk to them about their day. Control what you can control and don't waste your energy on shit like this. Appreciate your current state because maybe in a couple years you'll be dead or a war might happen here. Either way you have no say in it and all our clocks are tickin'.
Westernhawk
Well-Known Member
I dunno, man, you spent four paragraphs and some time chiding me. Maybe you need to take a breath. I feel quite tranquil.
Westernhawk
Well-Known Member
My mom is dead. I help people for a living. I'm fine, and I definitely focus on what I can control. I write a couple of sentences on a message board and I get some advice from a random guy in NW Iowa that I don't know at all. Maybe don't get too personal, chief.
I will write what I wish relevant to this war and politics. If you don't like it, get butthurt and ban me. No worries here, pal. I'm definitely not listening to your advice. I have a wonderful, beautiful wife (do you?), grown successful kids (lawyer and engineer), and a great dog. I mountain bike on trails every weekend. You be giving the wrong guy advice! Maybe you should take your advice.
BTW you are "ignored member" for a reason for me, and this is what I get for opening up your rant. Back to ignored user.
Fryowa
Administrator
You feel quite tranquil?
Maybe we can bump up some of your politics posts where you went bonkers with rage? You remember any of those?
HuckFinn
Well-Known Member
I will continue to make my political opinions clear. Will what I say have an impact? Only if many others follow the same path. It did end Viet Nam. Public opinion had a real impact on withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran? Stay tuned.
However. I see our law makers’ failure to follow public opinion at an all time high. That is dangerous.
However. I see our law makers’ failure to follow public opinion at an all time high. That is dangerous.
Fryowa
Administrator
Mine too.
Good for you, I guess?
Zero chance you're getting banned. I don't operate that way. This isn't my website and I don't get paid.
Not married by mutual choice, but yes. Unless you require marriage to be a partnership qualification. You said once you're from California, so I'm deducing that you probably don't.
I have a 19 year old who loves his job and makes a bunch of money too. Called me the other day and without me asking said he loves going to work everyday. He's an HVAC tech which is well beneath the value of your engineer and lawyer. You sound like the type who values status above anything which is puke-worthy to me, but who am I to judge? You apparently surround yourself with like minded people because you haven't figured out that parents who first mention their kids' jobs before anything else are the absolute worst.
I'm very happy. I can't take my own advice because I don't waste my time and energy being mad about things I can't control. Just your response alone shows you're a super angry person. Doesn't have to be that way.
#1DieHardHawk
Well-Known Member
I hate to see any of our people put in harm's way unless absolutely necessary. War is savage and brutal, and invariably innocent lives tragically are lost.
We'll see how this all plays out and reevaluate in 20 years. There have been many wars over the years where the outcome was disasterous. By the same token, wars also have been justified in hindsight.
Ignoring the initial persecution of Jews in the 30s, the Poland invasion and conceding Czechoslavakia to Hitler for example obviously proved to be huge errors in judgement.
No one knows right now how this will impact relationships in the Middle East or whether the world will be safer by contronting the country that is the biggest supporter of terrorism. We'll just have to wait and see.
We'll see how this all plays out and reevaluate in 20 years. There have been many wars over the years where the outcome was disasterous. By the same token, wars also have been justified in hindsight.
Ignoring the initial persecution of Jews in the 30s, the Poland invasion and conceding Czechoslavakia to Hitler for example obviously proved to be huge errors in judgement.
No one knows right now how this will impact relationships in the Middle East or whether the world will be safer by contronting the country that is the biggest supporter of terrorism. We'll just have to wait and see.
I think it is pretty clear, big losers so far in this war:
Iran
other Gulf states whose economies and securities have been massively disrupted
Big winners so far...
Probably Israel as they are securing hegemony in the Middle East, though we will have to see how far-ranging the ramifications are. There is a good chance they are radicalizing a whole new generation of Islamic terrorists.
Russia and China. Their main geopolitical competition is getting involved in a potential quagmire, rapidly depleting their munitions, and hastening the destruction of the rules-based international order which has fought to constrain authoritarian regimes for the past 80 years. Russia is also reaping huge economic benefit as their oil sanctions are being lifted just as the price of oil is sky-rocketing. China has to feel emboldened to potentially move against Taiwan in the near future...hard for the US to mount a principled argument against such a move, and our military is spread thin and depleted. On the flip side, China has invested heavily in the Mid East and is currently seeing many of its investments go up in smoke.
How does the US come out of this? Who knows. Ezra Klein's latest podcast is an interview with a former Trump Deputy National Security director, and she makes an argument for the necessity of the war (with pushback from Klein). His episode before that, he interviewed a member of Obama's national security team, who takes a more negative view of developments. I would recommend checking out both:
www.nytimes.com
We have an awful lot of history telling us this is likely to end badly, or at least unsatisfactorily. Whatever you think of this administration, long-term planning certainly doesn't seem to be one of their strengths. On the flip side, the former Trump NS advisor makes some good arguments about how the international order was broken and unable to respond to emerging crises, and I have enough humility with regard to my understanding of these situations to be open to the idea that Trump's disregard for how things HAVE BEEN DONE and his unique tolerance for risk taking could have some benefits.
We will see. I will hope and pray for our troops. I am not especially confident this ends well in the Middle East, and I have an emerging anxiety about what it means regarding broader international conflict.
Iran
other Gulf states whose economies and securities have been massively disrupted
Big winners so far...
Probably Israel as they are securing hegemony in the Middle East, though we will have to see how far-ranging the ramifications are. There is a good chance they are radicalizing a whole new generation of Islamic terrorists.
Russia and China. Their main geopolitical competition is getting involved in a potential quagmire, rapidly depleting their munitions, and hastening the destruction of the rules-based international order which has fought to constrain authoritarian regimes for the past 80 years. Russia is also reaping huge economic benefit as their oil sanctions are being lifted just as the price of oil is sky-rocketing. China has to feel emboldened to potentially move against Taiwan in the near future...hard for the US to mount a principled argument against such a move, and our military is spread thin and depleted. On the flip side, China has invested heavily in the Mid East and is currently seeing many of its investments go up in smoke.
How does the US come out of this? Who knows. Ezra Klein's latest podcast is an interview with a former Trump Deputy National Security director, and she makes an argument for the necessity of the war (with pushback from Klein). His episode before that, he interviewed a member of Obama's national security team, who takes a more negative view of developments. I would recommend checking out both:
The Ezra Klein Show
Real conversations. Ideas that matter. So many book recommendations.
We have an awful lot of history telling us this is likely to end badly, or at least unsatisfactorily. Whatever you think of this administration, long-term planning certainly doesn't seem to be one of their strengths. On the flip side, the former Trump NS advisor makes some good arguments about how the international order was broken and unable to respond to emerging crises, and I have enough humility with regard to my understanding of these situations to be open to the idea that Trump's disregard for how things HAVE BEEN DONE and his unique tolerance for risk taking could have some benefits.
We will see. I will hope and pray for our troops. I am not especially confident this ends well in the Middle East, and I have an emerging anxiety about what it means regarding broader international conflict.
Completely agree about the uselessness of ranting and raving on a message board, but I better understand things by writing out my thoughts. That can be elucidating, and potentially therapeutic. And let's face it, I have dedicated several hours of my life to exploring the potential members of the All-KF era football team, so clearly using my time wisely is not one of my strengths.
But while ranting on a message board is useless, civic engagement more broadly is not, whether that is by protesting or contacting your local representative. These means of action take forever to have an impact, but I believe they do matter. Look at what civic engagement in the Twin Cities has done to move public opinion and influence administration policies. Now, we could debate just how much immigration enforcement policy has changed vs. how their marketing of that policy has changed, but it certainly seems like the administration is now focusing on the targeted enforcement that most people support, and they are de-emphasizing the broad sweeps that most people deplore. The resistance has also brought a lot of shit to light (e.g. abandonment of constitutional rights) that otherwise would have stayed hidden.
Fryowa
Administrator
A few thoughts...
I think the definition of useful/useless needs to be established. If you're defining usefulness as getting your viewpoint across to other people, or getting things off your chest, or feeling better by venting, maybe you have something there. But if we're defining usefulness as affecting the outcome of something, I still hold this as useless and even counterproductive. Counterproductive because it's energy spent being negative that you could have spent doing something that benefits yourself or someone else close to you.
On a small scale ranting and raving can make some difference. If you're town is planning on tearing out a nature area to put up a golf course you can get something started and have a small chance of organizing enough people to make a difference. But with something the scale of the United States government, being pissed off and yelling like @Westernhawk is 100% in an echo chamber. Anyone thinking they can make a difference is lying to themselves, and they just love to hear themselves bitch and insult people on the other side. Nothing more. If it makes them feel better mentally to get red-faced and scream/type insults about politician XYZ whichever side they're on, knock yourself out. News flash...everyone already knows politicians are all pieces of shit...screaming about it doesn't make it more so...
We do not live in a place where democracy rules, period. We live in an oligarchy which is nothing more than a competition between the two parties' billionaires for congressional votes. I could organize a 50 million person march right this very minute against the Iran war and drop it right on Pennsylvania Avenue, and it wouldn't have an iota influence on what Trump and his cabinet will do. Same thing if I did that during Obama's presidency if I was against the ACA. People love to think they have a say in politics in this country but they don't. Voting is a feel-good farce. Sure voting works to get the majorities/minorities shuffled around once a decade or so, but anything you do now is just going to get changed back again in 4 years when it flipflops. That's the way it's worked since the mid 80s. It's too partisan. The decisions politicians make (almost all of them are millionaires and billionaires even before you consider lobbying groups) are based on party line. They aren't based on their personal convictions. If you don't believe that's true, I don't know what else I can say. Sure there maybe be a handful of five or six Congresspeople out there who stick to their convictions and vote according to what they think is right, but tell me a single instance where those types have been able to sway the course of politics in this country at all in the past 60 years...
All of this is why I think it's a stupid waste of time. Not stupid because the issues are stupid, or stupid because I don't care what happens to this country, because I do. It's stupid because we all have a very quickly ticking clock on this earth which speeds up massively the older you get. So am I going to spend a single minute of my time getting mad because we're bombing Iran, or because of what I think we should be doing about immigration, or because my tax dollars go to wellfare, or because I have to pay for health insurance when people who don't work, don't? Nope. Because I am SUPREMELY lucky to not have cancer right now, I can walk/talk/eat/breathe, I have people close to me that I love and get to see or talk to every day, my house is still standing, etc. I focus on that shit. Because absolutely nothing I do big or small is going to change what Donald Trump or the next president or the next is going to do. I need to enjoy life and my family before I either get sick and die in 20 years or World War 3 starts. I can't really change any of it.
Hawkboys
Well-Known Member
I think we will see short term (2026) bad results. But love or hate the president he's made the US the foremost super power, even if every other country hates us. That will provide both good and bad long term results. I do agree that this makes Israel stronger as other Middle East countries afraid to mess with them. And maybe an unintended positive is based on Iran's attack everyone approach has led to some more support in the region for Israel.I think it is pretty clear, big losers so far in this war:
Iran
other Gulf states whose economies and securities have been massively disrupted
Big winners so far...
Probably Israel as they are securing hegemony in the Middle East, though we will have to see how far-ranging the ramifications are. There is a good chance they are radicalizing a whole new generation of Islamic terrorists.
Russia and China. Their main geopolitical competition is getting involved in a potential quagmire, rapidly depleting their munitions, and hastening the destruction of the rules-based international order which has fought to constrain authoritarian regimes for the past 80 years. Russia is also reaping huge economic benefit as their oil sanctions are being lifted just as the price of oil is sky-rocketing. China has to feel emboldened to potentially move against Taiwan in the near future...hard for the US to mount a principled argument against such a move, and our military is spread thin and depleted. On the flip side, China has invested heavily in the Mid East and is currently seeing many of its investments go up in smoke.
How does the US come out of this? Who knows. Ezra Klein's latest podcast is an interview with a former Trump Deputy National Security director, and she makes an argument for the necessity of the war (with pushback from Klein). His episode before that, he interviewed a member of Obama's national security team, who takes a more negative view of developments. I would recommend checking out both:
The Ezra Klein Show
Real conversations. Ideas that matter. So many book recommendations.
We have an awful lot of history telling us this is likely to end badly, or at least unsatisfactorily. Whatever you think of this administration, long-term planning certainly doesn't seem to be one of their strengths. On the flip side, the former Trump NS advisor makes some good arguments about how the international order was broken and unable to respond to emerging crises, and I have enough humility with regard to my understanding of these situations to be open to the idea that Trump's disregard for how things HAVE BEEN DONE and his unique tolerance for risk taking could have some benefits.
We will see. I will hope and pray for our troops. I am not especially confident this ends well in the Middle East, and I have an emerging anxiety about what it means regarding broader international conflict.
Fryowa
Administrator
One thing this war is showing the entire world is that the US has more military capabilities, resources, technology, and (pertinent) weapons than the rest of the world's militaries combined and even it can't keep a little 30 mile wide, shallow waterway open.
That's not a good omen in the broader long-term picture.
That's not a good omen in the broader long-term picture.
I respect your views, but you are a bit more nihilistic about the state of our current government than I.
I am going to propose an extreme scenario, NOT to liken what is currently going on to this scenario, but as a far-end-of-the-spectrum case study as a thought experiment. This is not some sort of "gotcha" for you, I think this is interesting for any of us to think about. And if we are all 100% confident we come out on the right side of history on this one, millions of German citizens would beg to differ.
(I am using Claude to help me lay this out, I by no means have my history down well enough to recite this).
Let's say we are growing up in Nazi Germany in the 1930's.
Hitler becomes Chancellor in 1933, and in that year suspends civil liberties after the Reichstag fire and begins governing by decree. He also bans other political parties.
Hitler merges Chancellor and President roles in 1934 after death of President von Hindenburg. Hitler is now the Fuhrer.
In 1933-34, Hitler promotes a nationwide boycott of Jewish businesses, bans Jews from civil service, bars Jews from the fields of journalism, law, medicine, arts, and education.
In 1933, Hitler opens Dachau prison for political prisoners.
1935, Hitler implements military conscription.
In 1938, Kristallnacht, synagogues burned, Jewish homes/businesses smashed, 30,000 Jews arrested.
In 1938, Germany annexes Austria and a portion of Czechoslovakia.
In 1939-41, Germany invades Poland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, France, and Soviet Union.
From 1941-1945, Germany implements the final solution (Holocaust).
Throughout all of that, would you (not aimed at any one person, but all of us) just keep your head down and go about your life?
Most people did. And they weren't monsters, they were just people thinking about getting through the day-to-day.
Would there be a red line for you? If so, what would it be? And how would you respond? And would that response make a difference?
There were people that resisted in Germany, and many of them died. Some of those deaths probably did not make a difference. But for some, their resistance saved lives (Oskar Schindler). And for others, their deaths became important symbolically (Dietrich Bonhoeffer).
I will be honest, I think about ending up on the right side of history. The stuff up in Minneapolis (MN is my home state) has really driven home how bleak some things have gotten. I am definitely NOT doing much in the way of resistance, and I feel guilty about that. I do not want to sleepwalk into authoritarianism, watch traditional American liberties get eroded, and then explain to my grandkids someday that I did nothing as it all transpired. I don't know what the answer is, and I feel like I am falling well short of what the moment requires, but I think about this shit a lot these days.
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed how far their military capability had degraded, and they have since used Ukraine as a training ground to bring up their capabilities. I think we have learned about modern warfare from our front-row seat to Russia-Ukraine, we began our adaptation prior to the most recent hostilities breaking out, and we are currently honing our capabilities.
The biggest thing we need to do from a defense standpoint moving forward is to greatly increase manufacturing capacity at home. You have spoken about how China dwarfs us in this regard...all the great tech and tactics in the world don't matter when you run out of "bullets." I think they are moving in the right direction on this stuff, but catching China at any point in the coming decades is unrealistic.
edit: I also bemoan that fact that all of this spending on defense is taking money away that could be spent on improving things at home, but due to my aforementioned anxiety about broad international conflict in the near future, I cannot even condemn it.
Westernhawk
Well-Known Member
We actually agree on a lot. I was in a terrible accident last Aug and could have died. I'm super thankful to be alive, and I live accordingly each day. I totally agree that we need to spend our time wisely, and love those close to us.
I respectfully disagree that becoming angry about important issues is a complete waste of time, or that I'm in some sort of "echo chamber" as you say. In my real life, I have been able to participate in, and contribute to, changes in state law in my area of expertise. I also was part of a governor's fellowship in a state where two of my friends are now mayors of two significant cities in that state. At the state and local levels, we definitely can make a difference, and I've seen it (and been a part of it).
Your point is well taken that the billionaires (oligarchs) have control at the national level. Having said that, I'm the type of person who never gives up. If the people in Minneapolis just stayed in their houses after ICE murdered two of their citizens, maybe Bovino and Noem would still be at it, doing unconstitutional things. Currently, ICE funding is a big question, largely because of the actions of everyday citizens.
I'm an optimist (probably a fault). I'm not nearly as cynical as you are. My grandfather was literally on the scene when Dachau was liberated. I was a military officer. I advocate strongly for people in my current role, and I have some influence there. I'd rather be fighting the good fight and lose than just sit idle. To each his own.
With this war (called Excursion by DJT but I think he meant incursion), we may see some really unfortunate downsides in the coming weeks, months, and years. It should be noted that we killed a bunch of school girls as well. I'm not okay with that, and if occasionally venting on a message board with like dudes is a problem for you, then so be it.
So I'll occasionally go on a rant on a message board. I can assure you that I spend a minimal amount of time doing so, and spend most of my time doing things in the real world. Cheers. If I can persuade 50 people to think differently, or vote differently, it's a win. I've persuaded some!
