The good and the bad

[hawkIhoops]

No doubt Iowa basketball has a pulse again and for a long suffering hoops fan, that by itself is reason for optimism. Last year I wanted the season to end so the embarassing beatdowns would stop . This season, despite our record, I wish there was one more game.

On the plus side we will return all but Cole next season and hopefully will land two more contributors to go along with White and Oglesby. Getting Payne back will help with depth and having sophs not freshman should reduce some of the silly mistakes and painful scoring droughts.

On the flip side, we have some glaring deficiences that IMO, can only be addressed through recruiting. Yesterday's game was another example of how limited we are athletically, especially off the bounce. Even with another dribble drive guard, we lack shooters and we don't have an answer for teams with big bodies down low. It will take time to get the right mix of players on the squad, but McCaffrey has a plan and he certainly got the most out of this team simply by imploring them to compete every night.

 

[tweeterhawk]

Lot of glaring deficiencies that Fran and staff need to address: shooting; ball handling (outside of BC); blocking out big bodies down low; getting to the rim.

I trust Fran on evaluation of talent; the two best players on the team are Fran recruits. Get more of that talent caliber each year and this program will be back.

 

[hawkfarmer]

I agree, but everyone has to realize it will take a few years as we won't just "SEC" players and remove them from the team. It will take some graduation for them to leave.

 

[sportstalent]

Iowa has some glaring weaknesses, but they also aren't as far away as I think some want to believe. Iowa's number one issue is quality depth, not to knock on any current players, but when your third player off the bench is a walk-on, you simply lack quality depth.

The good, Iowa will have at least four new players on the roster next season, while losing only one, plus Payne is back. It will be interesting to see the type of player Payne is, can he come back healthy? He has been written off by a lot of people, but weather Iowa gets Cezar or Carter, Payne will still be a player in the rotation. Seeing a player like Payne coming off the bench after starting every game as a freshman gives Iowa a quality player off the bench, given he is healthy.

White and Oglesby add depth and they will have little pressure as it will be tough for either to earn a starting spot, so coming off the bench should be a very positive thing. That is two more quality players whom Iowa can turn to during the scoring droughts, when Iowa needed a hoop, there was nobody to turn to.

Iowa has two more scholarships available as it stands, they can go get whomever they want (in relative terms), if Cezar and Carter say no then so be it. Fran and staff can evaluate talent and it should be trusted they will bring in two quality players. Iowa's number one asset is their coaching staff and their ability to develop thier players.

The roster overall still needs to be turned over, but I don't see Fran and company just dropping players. Continue to develop the youth while some of the upperclassmen provide the bridge to good things to come. The current roster is not that bad talent-wise, just depth-wise.

Lastly, the one thing that disappointed me was the inability to recognize where the three point shooters were all the time. That lack of recognition cost Iowa games, it wasn't just one player either, it was all of them. People point out May/Gatens as the problem, but Basabe/Cartwright/Cole/Marble were just as guilty at times. Teams wouldn't have that much success all the time if it were just one or two players. Until that is taken care of, Iowa will not advance as quickly as they are capable in the rebuilding process.

 

[CAARHawk]

The current roster is full of a bunch of guys with the same weaknesses. Not great outside shooting, not great dribble penetrators, not explosive finish at the rim guys. Basically, a lot of guys that need to get a shot off within 15 feet, but who cannot create their own shot.

The problem with this is it limits what the two guys that have dribble drive and finish at the rim ability can do because the defense can sag into the lane. Nobody is afraid of Iowa's outside players. They aren't going to spot up and hit a J, and they aren't going to blow by you to the basket. You might hit May on an outlet or two. Gatens might hit some nice shots in the lane. Marble might hit a few runners. But there just isn't a guy in the bunch you should fear.

 

[JHHawk]

Again,is anyone surprised that as we transition from a style that produced the 365th slowest tempo in the country last year,to a tempo that was #2 in the Big Ten,that the players recruited to play the prior style are not good fits for the new style?
As they say,Fran had lemons for his style,so he made lemonade.

This is as wrenching a stylistic change in college bb as I have ever seen,really.
If Roy Willams came into Iowa as coach and tried to play UNC style fastball,same deal. We have to be patient as the roster turns over,and I recognize that most fans are being patient.

I just do not think you can overstate the importance of Jarry Cole's comments the other day after the game....''players want to play this way''...and how that will impact recruiting. Over time it will put us into contention for totally different players than we have been...maybe not top ten guys,but guys that want to play fast.
So right there we have progressed from last year at this time...a lot.

Now,that said, we have what we have so far for next year,sans two newbies who are yet to be determined. I expect Matt Gatens to have a very good year next year,as I saw him diversify his game this year,and become more effective off the dribble. He will shoot better next year, I predict. Eric May will work hard,and be better also,as he gets totally healthy again,the explosion returns,and he gets more comfortable with his role as a Chris Kramer(Purdue) type of defensive/transition player. His man to man defense still has potential to make him hugely important on this team.

This kind of transition just will not happen overnite,as much as we would like....but the arrow is pointed up. Funny things do happen in college bb....like my preseason picks that had MSU right behind OSU at the top,and the Illini up around #5,and Michigan buried at #9. They ended up tied...all three teams,at 9-9...go figure. Iowa could surprise like Michigan next year, if things fall just right. What we have seen is that when MSU lost Allen and Luscious,and Minny lost Nolen and Joseph...they both fell apart,really. Stuff like that is impossible to predict,so maybe Iowa will be the team that stays healthy like Wisky and OSU next year,and loses no one,and shocks the world....hang in fans.

 

[tweeterhawk]

Again,is anyone surprised that as we transition from a style that produced the 365th slowest tempo in the country last year,to a tempo that was #2 in the Big Ten,that the players recruited to play the prior style are not good fits for the new style?
As they say,Fran had lemons for his style,so he made lemonade.

This is as wrenching a stylistic change in college bb as I have ever seen,really.
If Roy Willams came into Iowa as coach and tried to play UNC style fastball,same deal. We have to be patient as the roster turns over,and I recognize that most fans are being patient.

I just do not think you can overstate the importance of Jarry Cole's comments the other day after the game....''players want to play this way''...and how that will impact recruiting. Over time it will put us into contention for totally different players than we have been...maybe not top ten guys,but guys that want to play fast.
So right there we have progressed from last year at this time...a lot.

Now,that said, we have what we have so far for next year,sans two newbies who are yet to be determined. I expect Matt Gatens to have a very good year next year,as I saw him diversify his game this year,and become more effective off the dribble. He will shoot better next year, I predict. Eric May will work hard,and be better also,as he gets totally healthy again,the explosion returns,and he gets more comfortable with his role as a Chris Kramer(Purdue) type of defensive/transition player. His man to man defense still has potential to make him hugely important on this team.

This kind of transition just will not happen overnite,as much as we would like....but the arrow is pointed up. Funny things do happen in college bb....like my preseason picks that had MSU right behind OSU at the top,and the Illini up around #5,and Michigan buried at #9. They ended up tied...all three teams,at 9-9...go figure. Iowa could surprise like Michigan next year, if things fall just right. What we have seen is that when MSU lost Allen and Luscious,and Minny lost Nolen and Joseph...they both fell apart,really. Stuff like that is impossible to predict,so maybe Iowa will be the team that stays healthy like Wisky and OSU next year,and loses no one,and shocks the world....hang in fans.

Good points. I think the fanbase will be far more patient with Fran than it was with Lackluster. When the two best players on the team are new and were recruited by the new coach, you appreciate what you have and look forward to the future, confident it will get better. If Fran can keep the core intact, and I have no reason to think he won't -- the players clearly like playing for him -- then he'll be gold and that much ahead with this year's team.

It's going to take time. As Roy pointed out (God, I hate agreeing with that man), the top juniors and seniors already have their recruiting lists and have a good idea where they're headed. For the past year Fran has been starting to make the case for Iowa basketball. Returning Iowa hoops to glory will come in incremental steps. There were many positives this year, and that in itself is huge progress.

 

[CAARHawk]

I think it helps that Fran is getting positive press as well.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

We all knew that this was gonna take more than a year. We have some nice players, but not the kind of talent needed to compete in the Big Ten. It all boils down to recruiting more talent.

 

[Thawki]

JHHawk, a question.

How are we the #2 temple team in the B10? How did you come to that conclusion.

Thanks in advance.

 

[olivecourt]

I understand what people are saying about needing a dramatic upgrade in talent, but I also think it's easy to over-exaggerate Iowa's deficiencies. Sure, to be a Sweet-16 caliber program will take several years of strong recruiting classes and player development. But are they really so far away from teams like Illinois and Michigan in terms of talent? Traditionally, you don't need a roster of McDonald's All-Americans to be in the top half of the Big Ten (which usually puts you in the tourney). You can do it with two legitimate creating/scoring threats and 4-6 role players with one or two elite skills. How does Iowa stack up in that regard?

Feature players:
Cartwright (could be one of the top two PGs in the Big Ten next year)
Basabe (Probably the second best freshman in the league, and Sullinger's going to leave)

Role players:
Gatens (elite shooter who can ice a game from the FT line)
Marble (can create his own shot and always aggressive with the ball)
May (strong defender and awesome in transition)
McCabe (good shooter for his size, can create matchup problems)

So if we can pencil in Cully as BC's backup, keep Marble on the wing, get Gatens and Oglesby open looks from 3, reestablish May's confidence, and develop Brommer to the point that he can be consistently competent, I don't see how Iowa's roster next year is different than, say, Penn State's was this year.

Yes, I realize those are a lot of ifs, but don't underestimate the benefits of another year in Fran's system. One of the underrated problems of this year was that it took Fran half the season just to figure out all of the BS that Lick had been teaching the team (I'm thinking of his philosophy re: closing out on perimeter shooters specifically).

I'll put it this way: I'd be more shocked to see the team stagnate and only win 12-13 games than I would to see them bust out and win 19-20.

 

[sportstalent]

We all knew that this was gonna take more than a year. We have some nice players, but not the kind of talent needed to compete in the Big Ten. It all boils down to recruiting more talent.

Keep one thing in mind, you don't get to a Big Ten school and not have talent. Iowa was competitive in the Big Ten this year, they lost a few heartbreakers and laid some eggs on the road, like at PSU when Iowa held a double digit lead.
What fans should have seen this year isn't what Iowa doesn't have, see what Iowa does have. For about the fourth year in a row, Iowa's starters can play, no matter how you feel about any one of them in particular. Iowa had no consistent options on the bench the past three years and this year due to transfers, not making excuses, it is fact.
Hopefully there will be zero defections and the loss of Cole only, yes only, but he is a leader and someone must fill that role next season...look for Cartwright as he put this team on his back in a lot of situations.
Iowa must have good bench play and big contributions from the bench night in and night out for the simple reason that they are not recruiting Top 20 talent every year, now can that change under Fran and Staff, yes, but not overnight.
If Iowa can pursuade a kid of status like a Cezar or Carter, then the turnaround really gets jumpstarted. Iowa will return its top three scorers and there is no reason to believe those numbers will go down next season. Get the starters help and lets wait and see. Iowa doesn't need one of the top recruits to rebuild, it will just accelerate the process. Fran and Staff have proven they can evaluate talent and also coach. Player development is the number one thing the staff must do, even getting Top 150 players, they still have to develop, if the Staff gets Top 150 players and they don't develop, it will be like watching Illinois. I know what I am going to get from Iowa each time they step on the floor for the most part, as an Illini fan, they have no idea what team will show up, what a waste of talent.
White and Oglesby don't have to be stars and for that matter they don't have to start, if they do, then they will deserve to be in there. McCabe developed as the season went along, he played well in the non-conference, struggled for a good part of the Big Ten season, but played well down the stretch, Marble developed, but he needs to play his true position to get better. Basabe developed as well, he did add some dribbling ability and jump shot, he needs to do more of that, but he developed. No player on the roster developed more than Cartwright and Iowa will be a better team and program even after he is gone because of it. The only player on the roster that I think went backwards was May, he just fell apart at times, he still played defense, but he didn't even do the simple things on offense well after he hurt his groin and was a shell of himself. Give Gatens a pass due to injury, Iowa must get him hot in the mid range area, if he gets hot there, then confindence goes up and his 3-pt. % will go up exponetially.
Year two is going to be key to the long term success, if Iowa can get over the .500 hump next season and to the NIT or even the NCAA tournament, the recruits are going to come back.
Fran has enstilled stability at a time when that was really the most important aspect that Iowa had to have. The offseason has become who is Iowa going to add, rather than who is going to trasfer out?