Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks - Week 8

SteveDeace

Well-Known Member
Last week: 6-5
Overall: 36-48
Best bets: 4-3

Home team in all CAPS and odds are based on opening lines.

VIRGINIA +4 over Georgia Tech
Quick, name the only ACC team still undefeated in conference play. Bet you didn't know it was the Cavaliers, left for dead after an ugly 0-3 start. Perhaps no spread this week makes less sense than this one, which makes my Spider Sense tingle. The Yellowjackets are clearly the more talented team, but they struggle defensively on the road at times and Virginia has covered the last five meetings at home and is 5-1 against the spread in this series overall as of late. Letdown game here for Georgia Tech after two straight emotional wins over Florida State and Virginia Tech. Virginia 23, Georgia Tech 21

Iowa State +19 over NEBRASKA
The potential of a freshman quarterback starting for the first time dramatically alters the talent advantage here for the Huskers, especially when you consider Iowa State has a solid, experienced quarterback and perhaps the best tailback in the Big 12. Cyclones have covered their last five against the spread, and four of their last five on the road. Nebraska 24, Iowa State 14

Penn State-MICHIGAN under 48
Wolverines are averaging 42 points per game in five home games this season, and Penn State has an experienced senior quarterback. So why play the under here? Because rain is expected in the forecast and the Nittany Lions defense may be the best up the middle Michigan will see this season. Michigan 20, Penn State 17

WASHINGTON +7 over Oregon
Ducks are coming off a bye, but there is still a look-ahead factor here with USC coming to Eugene next week. Will Jeremiah Masoli play? Even if he does, Huskies still have the edge at quarterback with Jake Locker. Washington almost beat LSU, beat USC, and beat Arizona at home this season. Ducks have won five straight by 25 points or more for the first time in school history. They're due for a tough one and they get it this week. Oregon 27, Washington 24

Clemson +7 over Miami
Tigers have the better defense here, and with C.J.Spiller healthy now they should keep it close. These are typically the kind of games erratic Clemson has won the last few years, when no one expects them to. Miami 21, Clemson 20

Boston College +9.5 over NOTRE DAME (best bet)
The Eagles typically play their best game of the season against the Irish, regardless of their record. Notre Dame is coming off a physical and emotionally-draining loss to USC. BC has won nine of its last 10 non-conference games, and five straight in this series. Eagles are 4-1 ATS their last five tripes to South Bend. Notre Dame 28, Boston College 23

UCLA-ARIZONA under 50.5
Two tough defenses here, with quarterback play that isn't always consistent. Bruins are only giving up 15.5 points per game on the road, and five of their last six road games have gone under the total. Arizona 24, UCLA 17

MISSOURI +14 over Texas
Another letdown game here for the Longhorns, who have dominated this series but are facing a sandwich game here. They're coming off a win over Oklahoma with a huge road game at Oklahoma State on deck. Texas 28, Missouri 21

Oregon State +21 over USC
Sandwich game here for the Trojans, even with the revenge factor. Coming off a huge win at Notre Dame with a trip to Oregon deck, and the Beavers are not intimidated by USC. Oregon State has won nine of its last 10 in October and in the conference, is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and is rested and healthy off of a bye. USC 31, Oregon State 17

KANSAS STATE -3 over Colorado
K-State is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Buffaloes are only 6-13 on the road ATS in their last 19 away games. Kansas State 27, Colorado 17

Iowa -2 over MICHIGAN STATE
The way to stick with Iowa is with a physical running game, which is what Michigan used two weeks ago in nearly pulling off the upset and what Wisconsin was doing well last week before an ill-fated quarterback switch in the second half stymied their offensive rhythm. At this point the Spartans don't have a physical, downhill runner. And I don't trust their so-called defensive "improvement" of the last few weeks. Those efforts came against Michigan with an injured freshman quarterback making his first road start, inept Illinois, and inferior Northwestern. Hawkeyes have the defense and special teams edge, and even though they haven't won in East Lansing since 1995 they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The dream season continues for Kirk Ferentz. Iowa 19, Michigan State 16
 
Last week: 6-5
Overall: 36-48
Best bets: 4-3

Home team in all CAPS and odds are based on opening lines.

VIRGINIA +4 over Georgia Tech
Quick, name the only ACC team still undefeated in conference play. Bet you didn't know it was the Cavaliers, left for dead after an ugly 0-3 start. Perhaps no spread this week makes less sense than this one, which makes my Spider Sense tingle. The Yellowjackets are clearly the more talented team, but they struggle defensively on the road at times and Virginia has covered the last five meetings at home and is 5-1 against the spread in this series overall as of late. Letdown game here for Georgia Tech after two straight emotional wins over Florida State and Virginia Tech. Virginia 23, Georgia Tech 21

Iowa State +19 over NEBRASKA
The potential of a freshman quarterback starting for the first time dramatically alters the talent advantage here for the Huskers, especially when you consider Iowa State has a solid, experienced quarterback and perhaps the best tailback in the Big 12. Cyclones have covered their last five against the spread, and four of their last five on the road. Nebraska 24, Iowa State 14

Penn State-MICHIGAN under 48
Wolverines are averaging 42 points per game in five home games this season, and Penn State has an experienced senior quarterback. So why play the under here? Because rain is expected in the forecast and the Nittany Lions defense may be the best up the middle Michigan will see this season. Michigan 20, Penn State 17

WASHINGTON +7 over Oregon
Ducks are coming off a bye, but there is still a look-ahead factor here with USC coming to Eugene next week. Will Jeremiah Masoli play? Even if he does, Huskies still have the edge at quarterback with Jake Locker. Washington almost beat LSU, beat USC, and beat Arizona at home this season. Ducks have won five straight by 25 points or more for the first time in school history. They're due for a tough one and they get it this week. Oregon 27, Washington 24

Clemson +7 over Miami
Tigers have the better defense here, and with C.J.Spiller healthy now they should keep it close. These are typically the kind of games erratic Clemson has won the last few years, when no one expects them to. Miami 21, Clemson 20

Boston College +9.5 over NOTRE DAME (best bet)
The Eagles typically play their best game of the season against the Irish, regardless of their record. Notre Dame is coming off a physical and emotionally-draining loss to USC. BC has won nine of its last 10 non-conference games, and five straight in this series. Eagles are 4-1 ATS their last five tripes to South Bend. Notre Dame 28, Boston College 23

UCLA-ARIZONA under 50.5
Two tough defenses here, with quarterback play that isn't always consistent. Bruins are only giving up 15.5 points per game on the road, and five of their last six road games have gone under the total. Arizona 24, UCLA 17

MISSOURI +14 over Texas
Another letdown game here for the Longhorns, who have dominated this series but are facing a sandwich game here. They're coming off a win over Oklahoma with a huge road game at Oklahoma State on deck. Texas 28, Missouri 21

Oregon State +21 over USC
Sandwich game here for the Trojans, even with the revenge factor. Coming off a huge win at Notre Dame with a trip to Oregon deck, and the Beavers are not intimidated by USC. Oregon State has won nine of its last 10 in October and in the conference, is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and is rested and healthy off of a bye. USC 31, Oregon State 17

KANSAS STATE -3 over Colorado
K-State is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Buffaloes are only 6-13 on the road ATS in their last 19 away games. Kansas State 27, Colorado 17

Iowa -2 over MICHIGAN STATE
The way to stick with Iowa is with a physical running game, which is what Michigan used two weeks ago in nearly pulling off the upset and what Wisconsin was doing well last week before an ill-fated quarterback switch in the second half stymied their offensive rhythm. At this point the Spartans don't have a physical, downhill runner. And I don't trust their so-called defensive "improvement" of the last few weeks. Those efforts came against Michigan with an injured freshman quarterback making his first road start, inept Illinois, and inferior Northwestern. Hawkeyes have the defense and special teams edge, and even though they haven't won in East Lansing since 1995 they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The dream season continues for Kirk Ferentz. Iowa 19, Michigan State 16

Nice first post...noob...
 
Um...where's the toll free number and game of the week???

I like ISU to take Nebraska. There, I said it. Sue me.
 
Oregon is at 10...

And Clemson is down to 5.5...


Anyways, I love Clemson and Mizzou this weekend. Wish I could get a few more points with Virginia, like them as well.

What about Indiana!?
 
While I agree with Deace that Michigan ran the ball well against Iowa, I disagree that Michigan's style was power running. Again, Michigan ran the ball well against Iowa, but it was far, far from power football. They spread Iowa out, removed the linebacker from the equation and then ran the ball. Wisky tried to run power football at Iowa and it worked for a half, but was not good enough to stay with the Hawks. MSU won't run the ball against Iowa as well as Michigan and I think in the end, Iowa defends a power running game much more effectively than a spread run game!
 
While I agree with Deace that Michigan ran the ball well against Iowa, I disagree that Michigan's style was power running. Again, Michigan ran the ball well against Iowa, but it was far, far from power football. They spread Iowa out, removed the linebacker from the equation and then ran the ball. Wisky tried to run power football at Iowa and it worked for a half, but was not good enough to stay with the Hawks. MSU won't run the ball against Iowa as well as Michigan and I think in the end, Iowa defends a power running game much more effectively than a spread run game!


Agreed, Michigan ran the same kind of zone-read option that Northwestern runs. You almost wonder watching Iowa play those team if it wouldn't hurt to just stand back from the line and let the play develop before heading upfield. How many times did we see an d-lineman get pushed up field, only to see Tyrell Sutton wait a second, step up take the handoff, and go right through the hole?
 
Oregon is at 10...

And Clemson is down to 5.5...


Anyways, I love Clemson and Mizzou this weekend. Wish I could get a few more points with Virginia, like them as well.

What about Indiana!?

Deace uses the opening lines for his picks. Doesn't help those of us who are betting it...but then again, neither do his picks! :p

Just messin' with ya, Steve! Good to have you around!
 
Agreed, Michigan ran the same kind of zone-read option that Northwestern runs. You almost wonder watching Iowa play those team if it wouldn't hurt to just stand back from the line and let the play develop before heading upfield. How many times did we see an d-lineman get pushed up field, only to see Tyrell Sutton wait a second, step up take the handoff, and go right through the hole?

Actually, Michigan ran quite a bit of power football at us. The TD drive in the 3rd quarter they were running right down our throats out of the I-Formation. There wasn't any zone option read plays on that drive. It was Brandon Minor and their OL controlling the LOS.

That being said, I don't think there are many teams that could beat Iowa right now by strictly trying to play a power running game.
 
Last week: 6-5
Overall: 36-48
Best bets: 4-3

Home team in all CAPS and odds are based on opening lines.

VIRGINIA +4 over Georgia Tech
Quick, name the only ACC team still undefeated in conference play. Bet you didn't know it was the Cavaliers, left for dead after an ugly 0-3 start. Perhaps no spread this week makes less sense than this one, which makes my Spider Sense tingle. The Yellowjackets are clearly the more talented team, but they struggle defensively on the road at times and Virginia has covered the last five meetings at home and is 5-1 against the spread in this series overall as of late. Letdown game here for Georgia Tech after two straight emotional wins over Florida State and Virginia Tech. Virginia 23, Georgia Tech 21

Iowa State +19 over NEBRASKA
The potential of a freshman quarterback starting for the first time dramatically alters the talent advantage here for the Huskers, especially when you consider Iowa State has a solid, experienced quarterback and perhaps the best tailback in the Big 12. Cyclones have covered their last five against the spread, and four of their last five on the road. Nebraska 24, Iowa State 14

Penn State-MICHIGAN under 48
Wolverines are averaging 42 points per game in five home games this season, and Penn State has an experienced senior quarterback. So why play the under here? Because rain is expected in the forecast and the Nittany Lions defense may be the best up the middle Michigan will see this season. Michigan 20, Penn State 17

WASHINGTON +7 over Oregon
Ducks are coming off a bye, but there is still a look-ahead factor here with USC coming to Eugene next week. Will Jeremiah Masoli play? Even if he does, Huskies still have the edge at quarterback with Jake Locker. Washington almost beat LSU, beat USC, and beat Arizona at home this season. Ducks have won five straight by 25 points or more for the first time in school history. They're due for a tough one and they get it this week. Oregon 27, Washington 24

Clemson +7 over Miami
Tigers have the better defense here, and with C.J.Spiller healthy now they should keep it close. These are typically the kind of games erratic Clemson has won the last few years, when no one expects them to. Miami 21, Clemson 20

Boston College +9.5 over NOTRE DAME (best bet)
The Eagles typically play their best game of the season against the Irish, regardless of their record. Notre Dame is coming off a physical and emotionally-draining loss to USC. BC has won nine of its last 10 non-conference games, and five straight in this series. Eagles are 4-1 ATS their last five tripes to South Bend. Notre Dame 28, Boston College 23

UCLA-ARIZONA under 50.5
Two tough defenses here, with quarterback play that isn't always consistent. Bruins are only giving up 15.5 points per game on the road, and five of their last six road games have gone under the total. Arizona 24, UCLA 17

MISSOURI +14 over Texas
Another letdown game here for the Longhorns, who have dominated this series but are facing a sandwich game here. They're coming off a win over Oklahoma with a huge road game at Oklahoma State on deck. Texas 28, Missouri 21

Oregon State +21 over USC
Sandwich game here for the Trojans, even with the revenge factor. Coming off a huge win at Notre Dame with a trip to Oregon deck, and the Beavers are not intimidated by USC. Oregon State has won nine of its last 10 in October and in the conference, is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and is rested and healthy off of a bye. USC 31, Oregon State 17

KANSAS STATE -3 over Colorado
K-State is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Buffaloes are only 6-13 on the road ATS in their last 19 away games. Kansas State 27, Colorado 17

Iowa -2 over MICHIGAN STATE
The way to stick with Iowa is with a physical running game, which is what Michigan used two weeks ago in nearly pulling off the upset and what Wisconsin was doing well last week before an ill-fated quarterback switch in the second half stymied their offensive rhythm. At this point the Spartans don't have a physical, downhill runner. And I don't trust their so-called defensive "improvement" of the last few weeks. Those efforts came against Michigan with an injured freshman quarterback making his first road start, inept Illinois, and inferior Northwestern. Hawkeyes have the defense and special teams edge, and even though they haven't won in East Lansing since 1995 they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The dream season continues for Kirk Ferentz. Iowa 19, Michigan State 16


Nice to see you here Deace, but my question is which pick do you think will really happen with Iowa? This one here where you have Iowa winning or the one on cyclonefanatic where you have MSU winning?

http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/football/69749-cf-experts-pickem-week-8-a.html
 
Well, based on Steve's overall record the fact that he is picking Iowa does not bode well for the Hawks.
 
Good question HAWKEYE SCOTT

Chris Williams sends us our weekly Cyclone Fanatic picks on Monday and needs them back right away, so that's what I predicted prior to spending a few more days really looking at the matchup and the weather forecast.
 
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