Some interesting halfway point Massey numbers

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
I've got Hawkeye football fever and time to kill lol

Some predicted win %s the rest of the way here:

Some sweaty palmed games ahead, I fear. A couple that jumped out:

@ Wisconsin, 70% win chance, projected 21-14 score
@ Nebraska, 62% win chance, projected 24-20 score

I think our 3 game win streak against Nebraska has been by a total of 12 points, so, 24-20? Yeah, I could see that. As long as we're the 24, I'll be stressed but ok with it!

On the plus side, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Illinois look like relative slam dunks to the model. Let's hope.

All 123 seasons of Iowa football ranked by the model:

If this season were to end today, it would rank as the 3rd best all time season of Hawkeye football, trailing only the 1958 and 1960 national championship teams. It's also the only Ferentz era season in the top 10. So, if you've felt like you've been witnessing something special this year, it might not just be your imagination! No matter how the 2nd half of the season plays out, this has been an incredible run so far.

Just for fun, here are the Ferentz era seasons ranked in order (overall rank, score out of 10.00, year, record):

3. (9.03) 2021 6-0
12. (8.52) 2003 10-3
15. (8.46) 2002 11-2
17. (8.41) 2004 10-2
19. (8.40) 2020 6-2
28. (8.10) 2009 11-2
31. (8.06) 2015 12-2
38. (7.99) 2018 9-4
41. (7.94) 2019 10-3
47. (7.84) 2017 8-5
49. (7.84) 2005 7-5
59. (7.64) 2008 9-4
63. (7.58) 2001 7-5
69. (7.50) 2006 6-7
71. (7.48) 2010 8-5
72. (7.47) 2013 8-5
75. (7.37) 2016 8-5
89. (7.11) 2007 6-6
91. (7.06) 2014 7-6
94. (7.05) 2011 7-6
101. (6.72) 2012 4-8
104. (6.65) 2000 3-9
113. (6.30) 1999 1-10

As things stand through today, five of the top 10 Iowa football seasons occurred before WWII:
1899, 1900, 1919, 1921, and 1922

Three more were Evy years (he only coached 9 years total, quite the hit rate - wow):
1957, 1958, and 1960

One Fry season:
1985

And, as of the halfway point, one Ferentz season:
2021
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
Hopefully Nebraska keeps losing and waves the white flag long before they face us. If that game were played today, it would be a 4 quarter game.
I’m wondering if apathy isn’t already setting in after that gut wrenching loss to Michigan? There is a chance they won’t be playing for anything in that game. It will be interesting to see if Frost can get them to rally.
 
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BrianFerentzForPresident

Well-Known Member
I’m wondering if apathy isn’t already setting in after that gut wrenching loss to Michiga? There is a chance they won’t be playing for anything in that game. It will be interesting to see if Frost can get them to rally.
With proper leadership that's the sort of game a solid team can rebound from and put together a memorable season. See Iowa's last 0-2 start. Thank god they have Frost for a coach.
 

hawkinn3

Well-Known Member
I think we win out but I know that Wisconsin thinks they’ll beat us and will have a ton of confidence. That’s the only game im really concerned about.
 

BrianFerentzForPresident

Well-Known Member
I think we win out but I know that Wisconsin thinks they’ll beat us and will have a ton of confidence. That’s the only game im really concerned about.
They are either going to throw five picks on the day or have 0 points if they don't get a turnover. I really don't think there is any way for them to score any points without an Iowa turnover. Their offense is that bad. Iowa's offense is that good.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
I’m wondering if apathy isn’t already setting in after that gut wrenching loss to Michiga? There is a chance they won’t be playing for anything in that game. It will be interesting to see if Frost can get them to rally.
It'll be fascinating to watch, I think. I have seen this scenario setting up for a few weeks now - they've got enough W opportunities to make a bowl, but have got some really tough probable losses to weather, too.

It's a stiff coaching challenge that I doubt Frost is up to. Even if he did get to 6 wins, would that be enough at this point in his tenure for a fanbase who is, without a trace of irony, humility, or self-awareness, eager to get back on the road to a national championship?
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
They are either going to throw five picks on the day or have 0 points if they don't get a turnover. I really don't think there is any way for them to score any points without an Iowa turnover. Their offense is that bad. Iowa's offense is that good.

Plus it doesn't help that their starting running back from last year has been dismissed from the team. Granted he wasn't starting this year, he ran the ball 24 times for 88 yards and a TD, but he was a big time recruit and it still hurts their depth. I'm sure the distractions are not helping the team either.
 

InGoodCo

Well-Known Member
I’m wondering if apathy isn’t already setting in after that gut wrenching loss to Michigan? There is a chance they won’t be playing for anything in that game. It will be interesting to see if Frost can get them to rally.
I work in Nebraska every day. Apathy hasn't set in, they think if they can somehow convince Adrian Martinez to come back next year for his Covid season waiver they might be in the CFP next year.
 

haydensly

Well-Known Member
I’m wondering if apathy isn’t already setting in after that gut wrenching loss to Michigan? There is a chance they won’t be playing for anything in that game. It will be interesting to see if Frost can get them to rally.
I think that no matter what happens between now and the Nebraska game, they will be up for it. They have shown that in past years when they had worse teams. That will not be an easy win for us.
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
I think that no matter what happens between now and the Nebraska game, they will be up for it. They have shown that in past years when they had worse teams. That will not be an easy win for us.

It's not like we haven't seen Nebraska quit on us before. In 2017, Riley's last season, they were playing for nothing and Iowa beat the snot out of them in Lincoln 56-14. Granted the very next season they were not playing for anything either but it was Frost first year and they managed to keep it close. There is a lot that can happen between now and the last game of the regular season. If Nebraska keeps stumbling and it becomes obvious Frost is a lame duck coach there is a chance 2017 could happen again.

I work in Nebraska every day. Apathy hasn't set in, they think if they can somehow convince Adrian Martinez to come back next year for his Covid season waiver they might be in the CFP next year.

From a fan perspective, sure, but these are delusional fans that still talk about the 90s. I'm talking about the team itself, inside the locker room.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
I work in Nebraska every day. Apathy hasn't set in, they think if they can somehow convince Adrian Martinez to come back next year for his Covid season waiver they might be in the CFP next year.
If I didn't know anything about Nebraska fans, I'd say you were full of shit.

Knowing a thing or two about Nebraska fans though, this is spot on. You almost have to pinch yourself to see if you're dreaming, but they are 100% for real with this nonsense.

They really believe they are a turnkey style program in the style of a Florida, Texas, USC, etc. Just waiting for the right coach. Literally unbelievable.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
I just don't think Illinois and Northwestern have the horses to beat Iowa this year.

The other 4 are going to be very tough games.
The Bielema factor at Illinois makes me nervous, but I'm hoping it at least takes him a couple years to get things clicking.

We need a couple gimmies, because I think at least a couple of these remaining six games turn into knock down drag out affairs. I'm not sure if any of the six, other than maybe (let's hope) Illinois, are straight up cream puff status. That might be a good thing, honestly - plenty of motivation to stay sharp.
 

CP87

Well-Known Member
Hawkeyegamefilm posted the results of a few projected-wins models for the Hawks through the rest of the season. The models had the chance of us going undefeated the rest of the way ranging between 3-9%.

We sit here thinking it is a near certainty they win out, and any result but that would be a catastrophic failure. But it is really hard to win football games. Teams favored by 5 lose about 40% of the time. Teams that are a TD favorite lose about 30% of the time. Teams that are 2 TD favorites lose about 15% of the time.

So if we look at any one game remaining, we can say they "should" win it. But there is a substantial chance of losing each one. And all of those substantial chances of losing add up over 6 games against in-conference competition. If they win out, it will truly be an epic performance.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
Also, some really interesting numbers and perspective on our pals over in Ames.

I wondered aloud several times if 2020 represented the best season of Iowa State football ever. I have also been curious to know if Campbell is, already, the best coach in Iowa State football.

The Massey ratings make a pretty strong case that both assertions are very likely true. Get a load of this - the 2020 season was, indeed, per the ratings, the single greatest season in Iowa State football history. Not only that, *four* of the greatest 12 seasons in Iowa State football have come under Campbell.

Think about that - 123 years of football history and, 6 years into Campbell's tenure, 4 of his seasons have fallen into the top 10% in Iowa State history. No matter what you think of the Clones, you have to acknowledge this guy is a generational catch.

Here are the top 12 seasons in ISU history - Campbell years are bolded:

1. (8.46) 2020 9-3
2. (8.41) 1976 8-3
3. (8.19) 2021 3-2
4. (7.92) 1912 6-2
5. (7.91) 1906 9-1
6. (7.82) 1919 5-2-1
7. (7.81) 2017 8-5
8. (7.79) 1911 6-1-1
9. (7.76) 1924 4-3-1
10. (7.76) 1977 8-4
11. (7.66) 1971 8-4
12. (7.61) 2018 8-5

A couple of interesting (?) follow ons:

- Ferentz has only had 3 seasons that met or exceeded Campbell's 2020 (2002, 2003, and, at least as of today, 2021). A bit surprising, but I wonder if some of that could be down to the Big Ten simply not being very good for much of Ferentz's tenure. We've had a couple splashy win totals against some not-so-great competition (most notably, 2009 and 2015, which rank only 28th and 31st in Iowa history respectively despite being 11+ win seasons).
- Iowa as a program, however, has had 15 seasons that met or exceeded Campbell's 2020.

It's still early, but Iowa State's 2021 to this point is *really* fascinating. You can see, if the season were to end to today, according to the model this would have been Iowa State's 3rd best season EVER (it would rank as Iowa's 26th, if you curious).

Just in terms of eyeball test, that's already a bit hard to believe, but when you dig into their 2021 thus far, it becomes even more incredible:

- Squeaker of a win against FCS UNI
- Two blowout wins against hapless UNLV and Kansas
- 10 point loss to a very good Iowa team and a close loss to a good Baylor team

They are only 5 games in of course, so the model will surely adjust but they still have the start of what could be, historically/statistically at least, a remarkable season in the context of their program.

Campbell is a catch for sure, it will be interesting to see how Pollard manages to blow it like he did with Hoiberg.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
Hawkeyegamefilm posted the results of a few projected-wins models for the Hawks through the rest of the season. The models had the chance of us going undefeated the rest of the way ranging between 3-9%.

We sit here thinking it is a near certainty they win out, and any result but that would be a catastrophic failure. But it is really hard to win football games. Teams favored by 5 lose about 40% of the time. Teams that are a TD favorite lose about 30% of the time. Teams that are 2 TD favorites lose about 15% of the time.

So if we look at any one game remaining, we can say they "should" win it. But there is a substantial chance of losing each one. And all of those substantial chances of losing add up over 6 games against in-conference competition. If they win out, it will truly be an epic performance.
Yeah, this is important perspective. We'll almost certainly be favored to win all the rest of our games but, as you say, favorites lose all the time. HN will still find a way to lose it's fucking mind and ruin all the good vibes.

Just taking the Massey win %s and using my Iowa public high school math skills, if I did it right that model gives us about a 27% chance of winning out.

I think your average fan looks at these remaining 6 games, doesn't see an AP ranking next to anyone's name, and goes, "oh, good, 12-0". And then loses their mind on HN when it doesn't happen lol
 
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