Schedule Ahead...

[Fryowa]

Iowa's SOS to this point has been 73rd in the country. From here on out it's 21st.

This is my crystal ball

vs NW - W
@ MD - W
vs Purdue - L
vs nE - This has to be a Win, most crucial game of the season IMO
@ WI - L, swap this one interchangeably with OSU if you want.
vs OSU - W
@ PSU - W
vs MI - L
@ nE - L

Then there's the B1G tourney which I'm not even gonna attempt to predict with the new format and all the byes, etc.

 

[eyekwah]

Iowa's SOS to this point has been 73rd in the country. From here on out it's 21st.

This is my crystal ball

vs NW - W
@ MD - W
vs Purdue - L
vs nE - This has to be a Win, most crucial game of the season IMO
@ WI - L, swap this one interchangeably with OSU if you want.
vs OSU - W
@ PSU - W
vs MI - L
@ nE - L

Then there's the B1G tourney which I'm not even gonna attempt to predict with the new format and all the byes, etc.

I would put a Purdue W more likely than a NE W. Otherwise I can't argue.

 

[Fryowa]

I would put a Purdue W more likely than a NE W. Otherwise I can't argue.

nebraska I think BMC can outsmart even if it's just a puncher's chance. They're a flash in the pan and riding a wave.

Purdue on the other hand is a prototypical Big Ten monster. That team and staff has been to the big time before and isn't going to get rattled by a team like ours. The physical part is just too much IMO. As has been said before, there's no replacement for displacement and that team is just too big and strong where it counts. Down in the paint is where the men get separated from the boys.

Their UCLA loss was tight, and every team is going to have a hiccup like they did against Indiana which is an in-state game that's always unpredictable like ours is with ISU (most years).

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Nebraska seems like a more refined version of Iowa. I like our chances of playing up to them and splitting the two games with them.

On Purdue, to paraphrase Shooter from Hoosiers, "they got themselves a bunch of headtoppers." We don't match up well with that.

I agree with Fry. 12-8 is where I would put money at this point.

 

[Fryowa]

Also, I said earlier this year I was gonna go watch the game in Lincoln because it's only 3.5 hours from me, but nope. I ain't paying $150 a piece after tax for nose bleeds plus gas plus food plus parking. Not for a 2 hour game at those prices.

I'll put some ribs on the smoker at 1:00, start my Sunday recliner nap at 2:00, and be bright eyed & bushy tailed for the game, ribs, and 3 cans of Coke Zero at 4:00. That whole ordeal will cost me 15 doll hairs and no drive home afterwards.

 

[Northside Hawk]

nebraska I think BMC can outsmart even if it's just a puncher's chance. They're a flash in the pan and riding a wave.

Purdue on the other hand is a prototypical Big Ten monster. That team and staff has been to the big time before and isn't going to get rattled by a team like ours. The physical part is just too much IMO. As has been said before, there's no replacement for displacement and that team is just too big and strong where it counts. Down in the paint is where the men get separated from the boys.

Their UCLA loss was tight, and every team is going to have a hiccup like they did against Indiana which is an in-state game that's always unpredictable like ours is with ISU (most years).

If Nebraska comes back to earth just a little, which could happen, that bodes well for Iowa in terms of how schedule fell. We did sweep them last year albeit with a different coach and team.

We had Purdue on the ropes at their place a month ago until Smith took over. I like our chances on valentine's day.

Scary to think of how well we've been playing and yet STILL eighth place in the conference. Would love to have the Minnesota-Illinois week back with no flu bug but suspect the flu runs through most teams during the season. But damn this league!!! This may be this year the B1G finally gets its first natty in a quarter century. Auburn, Houston and Florida all look relatively down this year. For Arizona, UConn or Duke to win it all they're going to have to go through a B1G gauntlet. I just hope teams like Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska don't peak too early for the conference's sake. Then you have Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin and, yes, Iowa in the next tier? Good luck rest of the NCAA!

 

[NorthKCHawk]

If Nebraska comes back to earth just a little, which could happen, that bodes well for Iowa in terms of how schedule fell. We did sweep them last year albeit with a different coach and team.

We had Purdue on the ropes at their place a month ago until Smith took over. I like our chances on valentine's day.

Scary to think of how well we've been playing and yet STILL eighth place in the conference. Would love to have the Minnesota-Illinois week back with no flu bug but suspect the flu runs through most teams during the season. But damn this league!!! This may be this year the B1G finally gets its first natty in a quarter century. Auburn, Houston and Florida all look relatively down this year. For Arizona, UConn or Duke to win it all they're going to have to go through a B1G gauntlet. I just hope teams like Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska don't peak too early for the conference's sake. Then you have Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin and, yes, Iowa in the next tier? Good luck rest of the NCAA!

I have watched Nebraska play a couple times and they do appear to be defying gravity a bit. They are very sound. Well coached. They play together. But, the fact that they only have two losses to two Top 5 teams is rather remarkable based upon their talent, IMHO. I do suspect they lose a couple more games, and hopefully at least one to Iowa. Hawks need a couple signature wins. That would be one.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

Seems like a lot of projections have Iowa from 6-8 right now. For whatever it is worth, the Hawks always seem to end up under-seeded relative to NET, Kenpom, etc.

Feels like they need at least one signature win to tip towards that 6 seed.

Two Nebraska games, Michigan and Purdue. Assume all the other games go to chalk (only losing at WI), does 1-3 in the Big 4 marquee games get them to a 6?

I honestly think they'll have a good shot in all four. Does 2-2 possibly even push them towards a 5?

 

[Fryowa]

I honestly think they'll have a good shot in all four. Does 2-2 possibly even push them towards a 5?

I don’t think there’s a chance in hell of a 5. I’m happy with a 7 to be honest because I think BMC can get these guys to win that first game.

This year is already better than anything we’ve had in quite a while. Both results and fun factor.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

There is not much difference between getting a 5 seed and getting a 9 seed or anywhere in between. You will have a first round game with a roughly equal team and your second round game will be against one of the best 16 teams in the country. I predict Iowa ends up a 7 seed. That is going to chalk and going 1-3 in those Top 15 matchups.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

There is not much difference between getting a 5 seed and getting a 9 seed or anywhere in between. You will have a first round game with a roughly equal team and your second round game will be against one of the best 16 teams in the country. I predict Iowa ends up a 7 seed. That is going to chalk and going 1-3 in those Top 15 matchups.

Disagree. There is typically a handful of teams that separate in college basketball. Playing the 13th -16th ranked teams can be a huge difference compared to the top 8, and night and day difference to the top 4.

The biggest key to the sweet 16 is avoiding the 7-10 seeds in my opinion. For making the sweet 16, I rather be an 11 than a 7 or 8.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

I don’t think there’s a chance in hell of a 5. I’m happy with a 7 to be honest because I think BMC can get these guys to win that first game.

This year is already better than anything we’ve had in quite a while. Both results and fun factor.

Not that it means anything, but CBS has them projected as a 5 right now. Iowa is 15 in Kenpom, 19 in NET.

Lots of quad 1 opportunities coming up, too.

 

[Zstatman]

The rest of the schedule is tough.

Not sure of who we'll beat and who we'll lost to. But I do know this and I'm guessing many agree with me.......that guy, BM, he can coach.

BM will have the Hawks competing in every game, regular season, BTT, the Dance. I'm very happy the Dance seems like a reality. I feel like a Sweet 16 is more possible than any time in recent years.

It should be lots of fun.............go hawks

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Disagree. There is typically a handful of teams that separate in college basketball. Playing the 13th -16th ranked teams can be a huge difference compared to the top 8, and night and day difference to the top 4.

The biggest key to the sweet 16 is avoiding the 7-10 seeds in my opinion. For making the sweet 16, I rather be an 11 than a 7 or 8.

I mean, of course the higher seed you get, the better your chances, but so much depends on matchups. You seem to draw a line between 6 and a 7 seed as a big divider. So, that is the different between playing a 2 seed and or a 3 seed in the second round. Iowa State, Houston, Zags, Nebraska, Purdue, Kansas, Michigan State. Those are the teams we are talking about right now in the 2 or 3 seed. Do you see a lot of difference there? Cause I sure don't. All really good teams. Some would be a better match up for Iowa and some won't. Unless you are a 1-2 seed, your second round game is going to be a dog fight most of the time. So, I am not going to sweat Iowa's seed if its in the 5-9 range. If they survive the first round, the second round game will be against a really good team.

 

[MisterLucky]

Purdue, to me at least, looks like the least potent team of the five teams now leading the B1G standings. They recently lost to both UCLA and Indiana, two teams we blitzed and today, they are struggling at home against Oregon. Talented guards, but if they're off, they are vulnerable. They still have a lot of tough games (don't we all) in the home stretch. A couple more missteps and they might wind up back in the pack with the rest of us.

 

[haydensly]

Purdue squeaked by against Oregon today. At home. Oregon had Bittle back which makes a huge difference for them but Purdue is not setting the world on fire right now. I think they will be vulnerable coming in to CHA next weekend. Of course, since I said it, they will probably play their asses off like they always do against us.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

If we can deal with their size, I like our chances. We are playing better basketball than Purdue right now. Let's get Maryland first though.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

I mean, of course the higher seed you get, the better your chances, but so much depends on matchups. You seem to draw a line between 6 and a 7 seed as a big divider. So, that is the different between playing a 2 seed and or a 3 seed in the second round. Iowa State, Houston, Zags, Nebraska, Purdue, Kansas, Michigan State. Those are the teams we are talking about right now in the 2 or 3 seed. Do you see a lot of difference there? Cause I sure don't. All really good teams. Some would be a better match up for Iowa and some won't. Unless you are a 1-2 seed, your second round game is going to be a dog fight most of the time. So, I am not going to sweat Iowa's seed if its in the 5-9 range. If they survive the first round, the second round game will be against a really good team.

Yeah, I think potentially there could be some big differences in those teams you mention above. We need to see how it shakes out by the end of the year and how they are playing.

Obviously there is no hard and fast rule, but I think typically there is an upper crust of teams that separate. It doesn't always mean they make up the Elite 8, but I'd still rather avoid them in the second round. When you look back at Iowa's somewhat recent tournament history, it is filled with second round losses to two seeds like Duke, Kentucky, Villanova, Gonzaga, etc...

I remember all those losses and the elite athleticism and size they had relative to Iowa (and sometimes skill), and thinking how Iowa would have had to play an almost perfect game to upset them. Now, Iowa also has plenty of losses to worse than 2 seeds on their resume...but the margin for error has typically seemed greater in those games. And if you start talking about a 5 seed vs 7 seed (so matching up with a 4 seed in the second instead of a 2), I think the odds jumps even more. Like pretty much a 50/50 game vs. 20/80.

All that said, I am juiced for the Hawks to roll into the tourney with an elite, scoring point guard to control the game, a rotation of 8 guys who play rugged, relentless defense, and a coach who consistently shows he makes the better adjustments during the course of a game. A lot of ingredients there for at least a second weekend...

 

[Grady]

Yeah, I think potentially there could be some big differences in those teams you mention above. We need to see how it shakes out by the end of the year and how they are playing.

Obviously there is no hard and fast rule, but I think typically there is an upper crust of teams that separate. It doesn't always mean they make up the Elite 8, but I'd still rather avoid them in the second round. When you look back at Iowa's somewhat recent tournament history, it is filled with second round losses to two seeds like Duke, Kentucky, Villanova, Gonzaga, etc...

I remember all those losses and the elite athleticism and size they had relative to Iowa (and sometimes skill), and thinking how Iowa would have had to play an almost perfect game to upset them. Now, Iowa also has plenty of losses to worse than 2 seeds on their resume...but the margin for error has typically seemed greater in those games. And if you start talking about a 5 seed vs 7 seed (so matching up with a 4 seed in the second instead of a 2), I think the odds jumps even more. Like pretty much a 50/50 game vs. 20/80.

All that said, I am juiced for the Hawks to roll into the tourney with an elite, scoring point guard to control the game, a rotation of 8 guys who play rugged, relentless defense, and a coach who consistently shows he makes the better adjustments during the course of a game. A lot of ingredients there for at least a second weekend...

"...at least a second weekend." ???
Okay, gotta tap the brakes here a little. This is a team that has and does all the things you mention, but it's also a team with significant weaknesses whose star scored 36 pts and yet nearly lost to 2-10 NWestern AT HOME yesterday.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

"...at least a second weekend." ???
Okay, gotta tap the brakes here a little. This is a team that has and does all the things you mention, but it's also a team with significant weaknesses whose star scored 36 pts and yet nearly lost to 2-10 NWestern AT HOME yesterday.

Second weekend means winning in round 2. That has to be the goal of every Iowa team always...at least until the streak ends.

What significant weaknesses does this team have? With a top 20 offense and defense, this team is very well-positioned for a March run.