REVIEW OF HAWKEYES BEFORE NATIONALS

GVGiant44

Well-Known Member
After a dominating performance in the Big 10's, I'm wondering if anyone can come close to Iowa at Nationals. First some general comments (OK, this is lengthy, but not much is posted on the wrestling site otherwise):
  • I don't think there is anyone outside the B1G that can come close to matching up with the Hawks - or 3 or 4 other Big Ten teams as well. The additional teams will just spread out the points a bit more and water down the competition. That bodes well for the Hawks;
  • I just don't see Nebraska repeating their performance from the B1G's at Nationals. They had a great tournament - and they have some real talent in their ranks and as many as 8 guys who might end up as AA's. But they fired their best shot this weekend, and all it did was push down the teams expected to press Iowa - Ohio State, Penn State, etc.;
  • I understand that sometimes you take a medical forfeit at the B1G's to protect yourself for the NCAA's. But after watching Evan Wick from Wisconsin (at 165 - Marinelli's weight) take one for the whole tournament, Penn State's heavyweight Nevills take one for almost the whole tournament, but even Shakur Rasheed who beat Abe Assad (184) once then medically forfeited to him in the WB's, I'm wondering how many of those guys we will see at nationals - and how many of them who do participate will be effective. That may doom Penn State's chances, even if they can crown five national champions (not out of the realm of possibility).
Now for some thoughts on the Hawks:
  • Spencer Lee really is in a class all his own. We are truly blessed to have him. For him, it is a shock if he doesn't win by major. I don't see anyone in his category;
  • The knee injury suffered by Desanto in the Penn State match at CHA vs. Roman Bravo-young just has to be more devastating than he (or the Hawkeye staff) is letting on. NO WAY Desanto is a 4th-place finisher in the B1G, having only one takedown in three matches. That's not him. For crying out loud, this is the guy who beat Spencer Lee as a Sr. in high school. I feel bad for the guy, but all we can do is get the most out of him we can and wait until next year. Too bad though as this kid, when healthy, can REALLY get after it;
  • I feel almost as bad for Max Murin - he is undoubtedly in THE most stacked weight in the NCAA - and he has a third wrestler that just seems to be kryptonite for him (Chad Red of Nebraska). Still, I think 3rd nationally is not out of the question for this guy. I love his upside;
  • Did Pat Lugo seriously get ridden out (by Sammy Sasso) for an entire period? The guy is a rock and should be in a class of his own. But no doubt, if the Sasso match Sunday goes 1-2 seconds longer, Lugo loses. He HAS to get better offensively if he wants to get by Sasso again. But this seems to be a 2-horse race at that weight. Last chance for Lugo - I hope he gets it done;
  • Somebody - ANYBODY - get out from behind HIPAA and tell us what is going on with Kaleb Young. Someone hinted flu, but I think it goes much, much farther than that. Of all the wrestlers who were not #1 (or close #2) seeds, this is the guy I thought had by far the best chance to move all the way to the top at his weight. Instead, we get nothing. And I mean NOTHING, as we seem to have the most incurious bunch of wrestling journalists in the country. Just some generic comments like, "Young was a real head-scratcher." OK, granted. And ... ... ??
  • Marinelli-Joseph and Kemerer-Hall. Each will most likely go to a tie-breaking 3rd fall in the finals at the NCAA's, having now beaten each other once - I don't think anyone is in their class right now. Too bad both of the Penn State guys are Sr's, as these were really shaping up to be classic rivalries. But both matches sure will be fun to watch. The Kemerer match at CHA and yesterday's Marinelli match are my two favorite matches of the year so far. REALLY liked the way Marinelli handled things yesterday;
  • What an addition Abe Assad has been. I was worried, with all the time he was out, that his season was done. But he looked good this past weekend - except when he wasn't attacking. He has some really good years ahead of him;
  • Jacob Warner is the other wrestler who will not be seeded #1 that I thought had a real chance to move up to that. I still do. He showed how good he can be when he is in attack mode. But he's had way too many matches where he doesn't. That was the ONLY reason he wasn't wrestling Kollin Moore for the championship this weekend. He is in a position to change that in Minneapolis;
  • Once the Penn State heavyweight went out for the year early in the season, Gable Steveson became the class of the B1G at heavyweight. And right now, Tony Cassioppi is not quite in his class. But even though Tony got pinned earlier in the season by Mason Parris, I do believe Parris is a guy he can beat. But he has been a great addition to the team, and I expect him to be up on the podium somewhere at the NCAA's.
I am convinced everyone will be looking up at Iowa at the end of the matches in Minneapolis. And we can only hope it is the first of what will turn into another almost dynastic set of titles for the Hawks. GO HAWKS!!
 
Maybe it's just the pessimist in me or not wanting to get my hopes up, but anything can happen at Nationals. The Hawks will have to show up, score bonus points, and make sure their guys on the consolation side of the bracket keep advancing. They should have all 10 guys going, which is huge in itself, but we need something out of Kaleb Young. I've heard that the cut down to 157 is just depleting him and taking a toll. I'm hoping he's just been sick and will be better in just under 2 weeks from now.

Shakur Rasheed beat Jacob Warner @197, not Abe Assad. Then in the 3rd place match Warner was dominating him so much in their rematch that PSU medically forfeited the match. Jacob has so much potential, but I don't see him placing above 3rd. Kollin Moore is on another level and Eric Schultz is no slouch. Keep in mind that Pat Brucki from Princeton will also be seeking revenge against Jacob.

We are very lucky to have Spencer Lee as a Hawkeye. I don't see anyone really getting in his way, but he'll have to stay focused, which I have no worries about.

The 133 weight class is pretty stacked too, and I would have to disagree with you regarding DeSanto. Right now, he IS the 4th best wrestler in the B1G as evidenced by this past weekend's results. The other guys in his weight class have figured out how to wrestle & defend him. I'm not giving up hope on him, but I just don't see him placing above 4th. And I don't think his knee injury was that devastating, otherwise he would have missed more time than he did.

I think Lugo is on a mission, but Sasso almost did have him at the end there. Sasso relies on his defense and counter shots, and he's super tough on top, but it was disappointing to see Lugo get rode out by him. I think Pat will make the necessary adjustments to meet up with him in the finals and ultimately prevail.

I think Tony Cassioppi can definitely place 3rd. I don't think, at this time, he has what it takes to take out either Steveson or Parris. Those two are just on another level. An off-season of heavy lifting and conditioning could definitely get him there though. I feel like Steveson is a type of guy who relies on his talent whereas Tony is a much harder worker.

But anyway, just my two cents. I'm liking the Hawks chances, but they have got to stay focused and show up. So excited to plant my butt in front of my multi-screens for 3 straight days.
 
After a dominating performance in the Big 10's, I'm wondering if anyone can come close to Iowa at Nationals. First some general comments (OK, this is lengthy, but not much is posted on the wrestling site otherwise):
  • I don't think there is anyone outside the B1G that can come close to matching up with the Hawks - or 3 or 4 other Big Ten teams as well. The additional teams will just spread out the points a bit more and water down the competition. That bodes well for the Hawks;
  • I just don't see Nebraska repeating their performance from the B1G's at Nationals. They had a great tournament - and they have some real talent in their ranks and as many as 8 guys who might end up as AA's. But they fired their best shot this weekend, and all it did was push down the teams expected to press Iowa - Ohio State, Penn State, etc.;
  • I understand that sometimes you take a medical forfeit at the B1G's to protect yourself for the NCAA's. But after watching Evan Wick from Wisconsin (at 165 - Marinelli's weight) take one for the whole tournament, Penn State's heavyweight Nevills take one for almost the whole tournament, but even Shakur Rasheed who beat Abe Assad (184) once then medically forfeited to him in the WB's, I'm wondering how many of those guys we will see at nationals - and how many of them who do participate will be effective. That may doom Penn State's chances, even if they can crown five national champions (not out of the realm of possibility).
Now for some thoughts on the Hawks:
  • Spencer Lee really is in a class all his own. We are truly blessed to have him. For him, it is a shock if he doesn't win by major. I don't see anyone in his category;
  • The knee injury suffered by Desanto in the Penn State match at CHA vs. Roman Bravo-young just has to be more devastating than he (or the Hawkeye staff) is letting on. NO WAY Desanto is a 4th-place finisher in the B1G, having only one takedown in three matches. That's not him. For crying out loud, this is the guy who beat Spencer Lee as a Sr. in high school. I feel bad for the guy, but all we can do is get the most out of him we can and wait until next year. Too bad though as this kid, when healthy, can REALLY get after it;
  • I feel almost as bad for Max Murin - he is undoubtedly in THE most stacked weight in the NCAA - and he has a third wrestler that just seems to be kryptonite for him (Chad Red of Nebraska). Still, I think 3rd nationally is not out of the question for this guy. I love his upside;
  • Did Pat Lugo seriously get ridden out (by Sammy Sasso) for an entire period? The guy is a rock and should be in a class of his own. But no doubt, if the Sasso match Sunday goes 1-2 seconds longer, Lugo loses. He HAS to get better offensively if he wants to get by Sasso again. But this seems to be a 2-horse race at that weight. Last chance for Lugo - I hope he gets it done;
  • Somebody - ANYBODY - get out from behind HIPAA and tell us what is going on with Kaleb Young. Someone hinted flu, but I think it goes much, much farther than that. Of all the wrestlers who were not #1 (or close #2) seeds, this is the guy I thought had by far the best chance to move all the way to the top at his weight. Instead, we get nothing. And I mean NOTHING, as we seem to have the most incurious bunch of wrestling journalists in the country. Just some generic comments like, "Young was a real head-scratcher." OK, granted. And ... ... ??
  • Marinelli-Joseph and Kemerer-Hall. Each will most likely go to a tie-breaking 3rd fall in the finals at the NCAA's, having now beaten each other once - I don't think anyone is in their class right now. Too bad both of the Penn State guys are Sr's, as these were really shaping up to be classic rivalries. But both matches sure will be fun to watch. The Kemerer match at CHA and yesterday's Marinelli match are my two favorite matches of the year so far. REALLY liked the way Marinelli handled things yesterday;
  • What an addition Abe Assad has been. I was worried, with all the time he was out, that his season was done. But he looked good this past weekend - except when he wasn't attacking. He has some really good years ahead of him;
  • Jacob Warner is the other wrestler who will not be seeded #1 that I thought had a real chance to move up to that. I still do. He showed how good he can be when he is in attack mode. But he's had way too many matches where he doesn't. That was the ONLY reason he wasn't wrestling Kollin Moore for the championship this weekend. He is in a position to change that in Minneapolis;
  • Once the Penn State heavyweight went out for the year early in the season, Gable Steveson became the class of the B1G at heavyweight. And right now, Tony Cassioppi is not quite in his class. But even though Tony got pinned earlier in the season by Mason Parris, I do believe Parris is a guy he can beat. But he has been a great addition to the team, and I expect him to be up on the podium somewhere at the NCAA's.
I am convinced everyone will be looking up at Iowa at the end of the matches in Minneapolis. And we can only hope it is the first of what will turn into another almost dynastic set of titles for the Hawks. GO HAWKS!!
Unless PSU goes on one of its patented runs and crowns 4-5 champs and piles up loads of bonus points, I don't see anyone beating us at nationals. As others have stated, though, anything can happen.

N.C. State is a team outside the B1G to keep an eye on. ASU was right up there too, but I don't see enough horsepower there now that Valencia has been suspended.

As for our squad:

125. Lee not winning the natty would be the biggest shocker of the tourney. Obviously, it could happen if he gets caught with something, or gasses out (probably his only weakness), but hard to see it happening. Mueller and Glory are no slouches, but Lee's on a mission.

133. As for the top 5, I think this is the most stacked weight class. I don't think DeSanto is injured at all, but his signature move has been figured out. It's on him to overcome it.

141. It's Lee and Pletcher, then everyone else. Murin is a battler but is too limited offensively to challenge here. Third place would be awesome, but I could easily see 5th or 6th.

149. Very little offensive firepower here. It will boil down to who can gut out the close matches. Lugo definitely has a chance, but he can't be passive.

157. Young almost certainly will get an at-large. The question is whether he will show up. A 4th or 5th place showing would really help out the team.

165. Obviously, the focus is on the Bull and Joseph, but watch out for Shane Griffith. He was a monster recruit and is borderline Spencer Lee-level talented.

174. Should be a Kem-Hall rematch, but you never know.

184. Another very tough weight class. I hate to say it, but I just don't see Assad finishing top 5 here. He's close but not a finished product yet.

197. It's Moore and everyone else. Warner is Iowa's most frustrating wrestler, IMO. When he's locked in, he's a top 3 guy, but he just struggles to maintain that focus and is prone to lapses at the wrong time.

Hwt. Sorry, I don't think Cass has much of a chance against either Steveson or Parris. I actually think Parris takes it. Just a gut feeling.
 
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