Media Picks Hawks to finish 9th

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
Something else to add - the Big Ten is a 14 team, extremely deep league. There are fates much worse than finishing 9th.

On sports-reference.com, I went and looked at where 9th place would be every season going back to 2014-15. Obviously we all aspire to be at the top of the heap every year but, realistically, given our program history and trajectory, I don't know that I take 9th as any kind of slap to the face.

Last years 9th place team reached the tournament.

Iowa is gonna need a lot to go right in order to out perform those projections.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
Last years 9th place team reached the tournament.

Iowa is gonna need a lot to go right in order to out perform those projections.
A ton of production to make up, for sure. That's called "opportunity knocks" in my book!

Tell you guys what though, given the vacuum he's stepping into and his trajectory and growth last season, I really think Keegan Murray could be a first round draft pick next summer. Lottery pick might be getting a little greedy, but late first round? I don't think it's far fetched.

If he proves to be that level of guy, the whole outlook changes. If Keegan can be that kind of force, suddenly it opens the door for some of these other guys to nestle into roles that are consistent with their current development levels rather than being depended upon to do too much too soon.

Can Keegan be That Guy and then how do those role player pieces fit together around him. This team might surprise.

I said "might" :)
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
A ton of production to make up, for sure. That's called "opportunity knocks" in my book!

Tell you guys what though, given the vacuum he's stepping into and his trajectory and growth last season, I really think Keegan Murray could be a first round draft pick next summer. Lottery pick might be getting a little greedy, but late first round? I don't think it's far fetched.

If he proves to be that level of guy, the whole outlook changes. If Keegan can be that kind of force, suddenly it opens the door for some of these other guys to nestle into roles that are consistent with their current development levels rather than being depended upon to do too much too soon.

Can Keegan be That Guy and then how do those role player pieces fit together around him. This team might surprise.

I said "might" :)
Yes, Keegan is definitely part of what needs to go right for Iowa this season.

I sure wish Nunge would have stayed.
 

Hawkfnntn

Well-Known Member
We will miss Nunge big time
Amen. I was looking forward to seeing how he kept improving. He might not make drastic improvements like Garza did but he was already a pretty dang good player. Would much rather still had him then not. But I'll be happily rooting for him to do well. Good kid has had some tough breaks along the way. He deserves to be happy
 

InGoodCo

Well-Known Member
Something else to add - the Big Ten is a 14 team, extremely deep league. There are fates much worse than finishing 9th.

On sports-reference.com, I went and looked at where 9th place would be every season going back to 2014-15. Obviously we all aspire to be at the top of the heap every year but, realistically, given our program history and trajectory, I don't know that I take 9th as any kind of slap to the face.
That's kind of my point - Fran in reverse has placed

3rd
5th
6th
11th
5th
3rd
3rd
6th
7th
10th
9th

9th is kind of a slap in the face for a program that rarely finishes that low in the standings IMO
 

PCHawk

Well-Known Member
That's kind of my point - Fran in reverse has placed

3rd
5th
6th
11th
5th
3rd
3rd
6th
7th
10th
9th

9th is kind of a slap in the face for a program that rarely finishes that low in the standings IMO
Also in my opinion, it's not like you have to replace 23 points per game from Luka. You have to replace his efficiency on the shots he took. If he took 20 shots per game, it's not like we are going to take 20 shot clock violations without him.

What's going to happen is we are going to shoot a lower percentage on those 20 shots. Maybe 50% instead of 60%. That's going to be a handful of less points scored on the shots he took. Hopefully we can make up for some of those points with better defense.

What's really going to hurt is our margin of error, especially in close games. In crunch time, we can't just feed the ball to Luka and get a bucket. But its also possible the rest of the team will be more engaged knowing they can't defer to him. That could make up for some of the loss too.

Wieskamp might be even tougher to replace because his points per shot were really high (at least it seems like they were higher than Luka's). Also he was good at both ends of the floor so you can't really hope to make up for some of his offense with better defense like you can with Luka. Man they were both awesome tho.
 

trj

Well-Known Member
Also in my opinion, it's not like you have to replace 23 points per game from Luka. You have to replace his efficiency on the shots he took. If he took 20 shots per game, it's not like we are going to take 20 shot clock violations without him.

What's going to happen is we are going to shoot a lower percentage on those 20 shots. Maybe 50% instead of 60%. That's going to be a handful of less points scored on the shots he took. Hopefully we can make up for some of those points with better defense.

What's really going to hurt is our margin of error, especially in close games. In crunch time, we can't just feed the ball to Luka and get a bucket. But its also possible the rest of the team will be more engaged knowing they can't defer to him. That could make up for some of the loss too.

Wieskamp might be even tougher to replace because his points per shot were really high (at least it seems like they were higher than Luka's). Also he was good at both ends of the floor so you can't really hope to make up for some of his offense with better defense like you can with Luka. Man they were both awesome tho.

The Sandfort comp to Wieskamp is obvious and unfair, but if he can give you 7 ppg and 2 rpg that would be huge. imo, Sandfort and Kris Murray and their progression and/or development are the key. That combo doesn't makeup for the loss of Wieskamp, but if they can give you 12 and 7(combined), you are talking a 8,9,10 seed in the tournament.
 
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PCHawk

Well-Known Member
The Sandfort comp to Wieskamp is obvious and unfair, but if he can give you 7 ppg and 2 rpg that would be huge. imo, Sandfort and Kris Murray and their progression and/or development are the key. That combo doesn't makeup for the loss of Wieskamp, but if they can give you 12 and 7(combined), you are talking a 8,9,10 seed in the tournament.
I think the two new centers are a big key to the season too. Along with the Big O.
 

SomersHawk

Well-Known Member
Perkins is getting little mention and he is gonna be explosive this year. Going to provide lots of highlight reel material. Rotating him and JBO and the 2 spot will be dynamic.

I love the makeup and potential of this team. Excited to see maybe the most athletic team top to bottom since the 80s.

9th place my ass!
 

beavdawg8216

Well-Known Member
Offensively we are not going to slip much if at all. Defensively i think 1-4 minus Bohannon might be our best defensive group in the fran era. What really worries me is our interior defense. Rebraca is only 6'9 and there are some damn good centers in the league. I think Big O could be an X factor defensively against those guys. I think Riley is to raw to feed him to the wolves.
 

BigD

Well-Known Member
This is to be expected when you lose 3 starters with one of them being the POY. We could be in for a tough year.
^^^^^^^ This ^^^^^^^

Of course we can all sit around and dream about player ability but this is not your grandma’s backyard. This is among the best conference in the country. Unless everyone else lost as much as we did, I wouldn’t expect too much.

I see they are picked to finish ninth. I had said tenth or worse. Of course I hope I am wrong and yes it is just a guess. Years and years of following Big Ten basketball tends to tell you that experience and ability are vital to any success in the conference.

Maybe I will be surprised and we can squeeze into one of the available tournament spots at the end of the season. There are a lot of variables here. How good will the transfers center be. Will guards be able to hold up under the long season and against seasoned Big Ten guards.

Common sense says it’s gong to be rough once we get into conference play. So it’s seems that wisdom would indicate that we just try to get pleasure out of watching the players develop and prepare for the season after this one.

One question that may be intriguing is when the BTT rolls around where will these players be compared to where they were at the beginning of the season. That can build Enthusiasm going into the following year. Relax, enjoy watching their development and look to the future.

I just see this year as a year of development, learning, and growth…………… might want to have a supply rolaids and aspirin in the cupboard though.

Would love to be wrong.
 

BigD

Well-Known Member
Also in my opinion, it's not like you have to replace 23 points per game from Luka. You have to replace his efficiency on the shots he took. If he took 20 shots per game, it's not like we are going to take 20 shot clock violations without him.

What's going to happen is we are going to shoot a lower percentage on those 20 shots. Maybe 50% instead of 60%. That's going to be a handful of less points scored on the shots he took. Hopefully we can make up for some of those points with better defense.

What's really going to hurt is our margin of error, especially in close games. In crunch time, we can't just feed the ball to Luka and get a bucket. But its also possible the rest of the team will be more engaged knowing they can't defer to him. That could make up for some of the loss too.

Wieskamp might be even tougher to replace because his points per shot were really high (at least it seems like they were higher than Luka's). Also he was good at both ends of the floor so you can't really hope to make up for some of his offense with better defense like you can with Luka. Man they were both awesome tho.
It’s all this speculation that makes it fun. I am not saying this team will be bad, but that the conference is just that good. I think most of us are expecting a little more in quickness and given what happen to us in the tournament it was obvious that we need to improve there. If our bigs can stand ground and defend the basket then we may surprise a lot of people. Hoping the twins are equally capable and talented (That would be HUGE).

Gonna be interesting for sure!
 

Hawkfnntn

Well-Known Member
I think the two new centers are a big key to the season too. Along with the Big O.
Yeah the new big guy Rebracca is just an unknown to a degree. How does he fit how much do we play through him etc? The younger big guys are an even more unknown. If this Iowa team is in the top 7 of the BIG that would be a pretty big time accomplishment. Nothing is impossible.
What if the Murray bros and PM turn into big time studs? What if JT plays under control and starts hitting jumpers just a little bit better? It's not out of the realm that these guys could be pretty darn good. It's just a matter of how high could the ceiling be? But yeah anywhere between 7th and 11th in the BIG seems likely anything better then that would be awesome.
 

HuckFinn

Well-Known Member
We talk a lot about big men, especially because we had a guy like Luka, who is a once in a lifetime player. What if we play this season with a front line that is populated by 6’9” guys who can run, jump, shoot, drive, rebound. And, 2 or 3 point guards who can drive, play solid D, and lead the transition game. That may generally describe what I see for Iowa this season, big men be damned. I seem to remember a team that took us out of the Dance last year that was built the same way as I described. This is not to predict Iowa’s record in what we know is the toughest conference in the country about every year. But, the way we seem to be built will be fun to watch.
 

STILLBUSTER

Well-Known Member
It comes down to how much Josh-O developed offseason and how much of Joe-Vies can Filleep replace. Also, gotta see a next-step from Keegan.

If the middle of the offense is weak, ain't no matter what the guards do cuz they won't be open to shoot. As it is, I expect Jo-Bo to avg less than 10 ppg but am hoping Tony Perkins can offset that.

9th - 11th is about right - somewhere around 7 conf wins.
 
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