All these years on this message board and I would have sworn you would be an analytics and/or WAR guy. Think you know people on this board, and you find out, you really don’t.
I do have a little bit of that, but with some caveats…
Where I think sabremetrics are great is in measuring comparative stats to see how effective players are. There’s no proof statistically that an emphasis on launch angle and exit velocity wins more games. It’s just used to be able to justify low batting averages and huge strikeout numbers being ok.
Where I like sabremetrics is finding new stats that are more accurate and tell a better picture of a player. Like OPS for example, it’s the easiest one to explain to people. For 100 years batting average was the gold standard. And it does have some applications in the game. But it doesn’t take into account walks and it gives a triple or home run the same value as a single. So what should we do? Take on base percentage (which accounts for walks) and combine it with slugging percentage (which weights singles, doubles, triples, and homers). If I have a guy who isn’t a great hitter but leads the league in walks…I want that over a guy who’s hitting .305 but otherwise can’t get on base to save his ass.
My disdain for LA and EV isn’t so much is what they’re measuring, it’s the effect it’s having on youth. Instead of learning the game, learning how to hit in different situations, and learning how to hit opposite field with runners on…kids only care about how hard and how high they can hit it when they do. Because their coaches at that level tell them those are the two things they need to make it to college and the minors. So they aren’t trying to make contact and move runners, they don’t learn how to bunt, etc. All things that help their team rather than just padding their own stats.
It’s the EXACT same thing with pitching. Kids don’t care about learning to locate pitches, how to work batters, or how to work situations. They care about velocity and spin rate. Now that there is affordable equipment that will measure launch angle, exit velocity, pitch velocity, and spin rate, that’s literally all above average 16 year olds care about. They don’t care about what’s going to help their team win more ball games because their washed up dads only see dollar signs and their own failed baseball “careers” and want to make up for it. They don’t care if their kid’s team wins, they care how their kid looks good.