Is Iowa a Top 5 Team in the Big Ten Over the Past 10 Years?

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
Well there are the usual opinions and then there are the facts......................


* Does not include 2022 season

Based on that Iowa has the best record against the East in the West division.

But that's probably because Iowa faced Rutgers 1 more time than Ohio State!!!!!
 

HuckFinn

Well-Known Member
Past 10 seasons, B1G games only. First one sorted by W/L Pct, second by average SOS. Calling Iowa a top 5 team without the context of SOS is statistically misleading at best, and bullshit at worst.

That's like saying a high school team is better than an NFL team based on record.

View attachment 9571
For those of us who continually repeat, Win, just Win. Iowa was at 65% and top 4.
Well there are the usual opinions and then there are the facts......................


* Does not include 2022 season
Yup. I read this article and posted a summary of it here. Is what it is. (2022 was bigger margin for the East. Duh.)
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
It's like I keep saying over and over the difference between the 2 divisions is Ohio State as they've been head and tails above everyone else in the conference for the past decade+. You put Ohio State in the West division and that balance shifts.

Hopefully the addition of USC and UCLA will help balance it out but I have my doubts. I think the only way you could perfectly balance out the divisions is if they were to talk Alabama or Georgia into joining the Big Ten and stick them in the West. I hate saying this but Ohio State has been THAT good.
 

dagdaj

Well-Known Member
You can banter about statistics all you want, but any fan who follows the conference knows that is about right.
There is OSU
Then there is Michigan
Then there is PSU, Wisky and Iowa in one order or another.
Then there is everyone else.

I would tend to agree.
But, I actually don't put Michigan in a separate ranking.
More like:
OSU
Michigan/PSU/Wisconsin (Iowa being an alternate, depending on the year)

Iowa/Michigan are both 2-2 against each other in the regular season, all wins coming at home.
Michigan is 1-0-* in championship games against Iowa. One win, and one forfeit.

Michigan still living on "the past" here. They get a lot of hype year in year out, with quite good football teams. That are almost always susceptible to losing to the likes of Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State. Over the last decade, I'd almost rather have played Michigan than Wisconsin in most years.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
It's like I keep saying over and over the difference between the 2 divisions is Ohio State as they've been head and tails above everyone else in the conference for the past decade+. You put Ohio State in the West division and that balance shifts.

Hopefully the addition of USC and UCLA will help balance it out but I have my doubts. I think the only way you could perfectly balance out the divisions is if they were to talk Alabama or Georgia into joining the Big Ten and stick them in the West. I hate saying this but Ohio State has been THAT good.
UCLA and USC are going to be dangerous, imo.

I get that people say neither of those teams play defense, but I’ve watched both of them all year and their offenses are high flying scoring machines. They’re going to give Midwest ball a run for it’s money.

I’d be fine if they decided to keep divisions East/West with USC and UCLA in the west, and gave Purdue to the east. The other alternative would be one to each division, but then it’s still even more imbalanced.

What’s best now I think would be 4 team pods and equal, rotating crossovers so that every X amount of years all teams play each other the same number of times.

F the Michigan/OSU game. You can’t put them in the same pod because RIP to the other two teams in it with them.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
It is going to be so much fun watching OU in the SEC.

They're going to get destroyed. You have to think about this from the perspective of the non-dominant teams. Say you are, for instance, Auburn. They have to play the entire SEC West every freaking year and their protected crossover game is Georgia. LSU has the same deal and has to play Florida. OU's fall from grace could be even more disastrous than Nebraska's was unless they square away their coaching and roster ASAP. If you go from Kansas being the conference cupcake to Mississippi State being the conference cupcake for that year you're not in a good spot unless you have an absolutely ridiculously good team.
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
UCLA and USC are going to be dangerous, imo.

I get that people say neither of those teams play defense, but I’ve watched both of them all year and their offenses are high flying scoring machines. They’re going to give Midwest ball a run for it’s money.

I’d be fine if they decided to keep divisions East/West with USC and UCLA in the west, and gave Purdue to the east. The other alternative would be one to each division, but then it’s still even more imbalanced.

What’s best now I think would be 4 team pods and equal, rotating crossovers so that every X amount of years all teams play each other the same number of times.

F the Michigan/OSU game. You can’t put them in the same pod because RIP to the other two teams in it with them.

If they went to that pod system I wouldn't mind Iowa being in with OSU and Michigan. I miss the ole days when there were just 10 teams in the conference and they played almost everyone in the conference. You can't beat the best if you don't play the best. Drag their asses into Kinnick every other year! It makes getting season tickets even more worthwhile.

But I don't think they are done expanding yet. I'd bet within 6 months they will have 2 more added and I'm thinking Oregon and Washington. At that point you can probably kiss divisions goodbye and it could become a pod system as those 4 out West would want to play each other every year.

Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Illinois
Northwestern
Purdue
Indiana

Michigan
Ohio State
Michigan State

Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland

They'd probably shop the ACC to fill those other 2 spots.
 

ChosenChildren

Well-Known Member
Chicken/egg. The east is tougher—that’s not debatable, so comparing Iowa’s record to say, Penn State or Michigan State over the past decade (and saying they performed better) is bullshit because Iowa’s schedule is so much easier.

East teams have for all intents and purposes two guaranteed losses every year and West teams don’t. That’s ridiculous to compare the whole Big Ten together.
I never said Iowa was better than Penn State over the last 10 years. I said they were top 5.

you can certainly argue Iowa and Michigan State are neck and neck.
Past 10 seasons, B1G games only. First one sorted by W/L Pct, second by average SOS. Calling Iowa a top 5 team without the context of SOS is statistically misleading at best, and bullshit at worst.

That's like saying a high school team is better than an NFL team based on record.

View attachment 9571
Ferentz record against Michigan State: 8-8
Ferentz record against Penn State: 10-8
 

Fryowa

Administrator
If they went to that pod system I wouldn't mind Iowa being in with OSU and Michigan. I miss the ole days when there were just 10 teams in the conference and they played almost everyone in the conference. You can't beat the best if you don't play the best. Drag their asses into Kinnick every other year! It makes getting season tickets even more worthwhile.

But I don't think they are done expanding yet. I'd bet within 6 months they will have 2 more added and I'm thinking Oregon and Washington. At that point you can probably kiss divisions goodbye and it could become a pod system as those 4 out West would want to play each other every year.

Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Illinois
Northwestern
Purdue
Indiana

Michigan
Ohio State
Michigan State

Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland

They'd probably shop the ACC to fill those other 2 spots.
Most of what I’ve heard lately is that the B1G doesn’t have interest in expanding further. To be honest, there isn’t a ton of value left out there outside the Big Ten and SEC other than Clemson and Notre Dame.
 

ChosenChildren

Well-Known Member
Past 10 seasons, B1G games only. First one sorted by W/L Pct, second by average SOS. Calling Iowa a top 5 team without the context of SOS is statistically misleading at best, and bullshit at worst.

That's like saying a high school team is better than an NFL team based on record.

View attachment 9571
Ferentz is 7-8 against Michigan.

losing records against Ohio state and Wisconsin.

winning records against Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska, Illinois.

about .500 against Northwestern.

I still think Iowa under Ferentz is 5th behind Ohio, Michigan, penn st and Wisconsin.

tied for 5th against MSU?

better than all the rest.

it’s an interesting discussion
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
Ferentz is 7-8 against Michigan.

losing records against Ohio state and Wisconsin.

winning records against Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska, Illinois.

about .500 against Northwestern.

I still think Iowa under Ferentz is 5th behind Ohio, Michigan, penn st and Wisconsin.

tied for 5th against MSU?

better than all the rest.

it’s an interesting discussion

You keep mentioning KF's entire body of work against certain schools but your original post was about the past 10 years.
 

Hawkboys

Well-Known Member
If they went to that pod system I wouldn't mind Iowa being in with OSU and Michigan. I miss the ole days when there were just 10 teams in the conference and they played almost everyone in the conference. You can't beat the best if you don't play the best. Drag their asses into Kinnick every other year! It makes getting season tickets even more worthwhile.

But I don't think they are done expanding yet. I'd bet within 6 months they will have 2 more added and I'm thinking Oregon and Washington. At that point you can probably kiss divisions goodbye and it could become a pod system as those 4 out West would want to play each other every year.

Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Illinois
Northwestern
Purdue
Indiana

Michigan
Ohio State
Michigan State

Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland

They'd probably shop the ACC to fill those other 2 spots.
If they go this route, they do 4 5 team pods
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
If they go this route, they do 4 5 team pods
I was thinking 5 pods for those last 3 but didn’t know how to organize it geographically while keeping rivals in tact. Maybe add MSU to that gawd awful 3rd pod but then you’d lose the annual MSU/MU tunnel fight. For scheduling purposes they could add an extra game for each team in those bottom 2 pods to make it work.

It was just an idea I threw out there, I’m sure there are better ones.
 

NCHawker

Well-Known Member
.
.
we need to save this 10 year data because we're at the inflection point. This might be the begining of the end with the challenges at QB, WR and offensive coaching.
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
.
.
we need to save this 10 year data because we're at the inflection point. This might be the begining of the end with the challenges at QB, WR and offensive coaching.

I sure hope you are wrong but I completely understand your thinking here.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
.
.
we need to save this 10 year data because we're at the inflection point. This might be the begining of the end with the challenges at QB, WR and offensive coaching.
Same thing we all thought when the Rudock/Beathard shit show was going on. There are several times from the twilight of HF's career through the Ferentz years that everyone thought the program was toast but it worked out.
 

MelroseHawkins

Well-Known Member
I would tend to agree.
But, I actually don't put Michigan in a separate ranking.
More like:
OSU
Michigan/PSU/Wisconsin (Iowa being an alternate, depending on the year)

Iowa/Michigan are both 2-2 against each other in the regular season, all wins coming at home.
Michigan is 1-0-* in championship games against Iowa. One win, and one forfeit.

Michigan still living on "the past" here. They get a lot of hype year in year out, with quite good football teams. That are almost always susceptible to losing to the likes of Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State. Over the last decade, I'd almost rather have played Michigan than Wisconsin in most years.

I think the fact that Michigan has had success two years in a row now show they have arrived and will be formidable every year going forward. The question was how they were going to to this year and if they were going to be able to sustain it or build on last years success. They have proven that.

Harbaugh had some rocky years and there was a question of him years back, but he seems to have that train going.
 

HuckFinn

Well-Known Member
If they went to that pod system I wouldn't mind Iowa being in with OSU and Michigan. I miss the ole days when there were just 10 teams in the conference and they played almost everyone in the conference. You can't beat the best if you don't play the best. Drag their asses into Kinnick every other year! It makes getting season tickets even more worthwhile.

But I don't think they are done expanding yet. I'd bet within 6 months they will have 2 more added and I'm thinking Oregon and Washington. At that point you can probably kiss divisions goodbye and it could become a pod system as those 4 out West would want to play each other every year.

Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA

Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Illinois
Northwestern
Purdue
Indiana

Michigan
Ohio State
Michigan State

Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland

They'd probably shop the ACC to fill those other 2 spots.
Hmm…
 

Hawkboys

Well-Known Member
Same thing we all thought when the Rudock/Beathard shit show was going on. There are several times from the twilight of HF's career through the Ferentz years that everyone thought the program was toast but it worked out.
You could even argue that every time everyone thought the program was toast that they came back better the following 5 years. I don't think they'll be a comeback this tome tho, unless they actually improve the Offense and replace the OC (big if this time).
 

dagdaj

Well-Known Member
I think the fact that Michigan has had success two years in a row now show they have arrived and will be formidable every year going forward. The question was how they were going to to this year and if they were going to be able to sustain it or build on last years success. They have proven that.

Harbaugh had some rocky years and there was a question of him years back, but he seems to have that train going.

I don't disagree. But that Michigan was maybe the hardest loss for me to watch. Illinois hurt because...heartbreaker field goal. ISU hurt, for so many reasons.

But that Michigan game was arguably one of Petras' best games of the season. If not the best? At least, statistically.
21/31 for 246 with one TD and no interceptions with some healthy averages to various receivers.
The rushing game didn't help out. It was all on Petras. And sure, 85% of that was all in the last 17 minutes of the game.

The defense did a pretty good job against that beast Corum who had to run the ball 30 times to get his 100+ yards. He torched a lot of other teams far worse.

Michigan needed 3.75 quarters to put that game away. Hawks finished the 3rd quarter with a solid drive and scored on the first play of the 4th. Then forced a punt....drove the ball 80 yards and turned it over on downs, inside the Michigan 10. They would have pulled to within one score with like 6 minutes left. Then, of course, the wheels fell off. I know, coulda/woulda/shoulda.

That was probably Petras' best 17 minutes of football all season. The defense did what they needed to do. A single turnover could have radically changed that game.

I just don't think Michigan is all that special. Still.
But, you're right. They could be on the verge. I don't totally follow other teams. Sure, I see scores flash across, but it kinda goes in one, out the other. Michigan did easily handle their business this year with everyone.....except Illinois and mostly Iowa. I only tend to see what's in front of my face. And that is, that Iowa's so weak, a national title worthy team should have routed them, which Michigan did not do.
 

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