Iowa football logs expert prediction to land top 2027 QB prospect

I wonder if there is a market-inefficiency to exploit here? For example, all the blue bloods are trying to find the big-money portal target that has proven himself at the college level. Can we sneak in and get a much higher recruit than we could 5 years ago? And can we leverage the culture and development (combined with some smart NIL spending) that has given Iowa the lowest level of attrition in college FB over the past few years to actually keep him on campus? I think that is the ideal scenario for Iowa, we just need to get better at IDing the right guy in HS (we haven't done that successfully since Stanley).
I have thought about this too. No insight into the inner workings of the recruiting strategy but it sure looks like this is part of the plan. Now, if we continue to recruit well we are probably going to lose someone to the portal. But that'd be a good problem to have.
 
If I've learned anything by following recruiting in the NIL era, it's that you shouldn't follow recruiting in the NIL era.

All it takes is one bag and the warm and fuzzies get replaced by other warm and fuzzies. I don't start following players until they show up to camp.
Lucy isn't gonna pull the football out from me either.

It's fun to see Iowa being mentioned for recruiting studs. Especially a guy some others seem to think is going to be an absolute stud QB. But it's so far out yet lets wait and see. Hell if the kid we just got for next yrs class Bessinger is half of what he's hyped to be why would this kid come and want to sit behind him for 3 yrs? So there's a lot to have played out yet at this point
 
Lucy isn't gonna pull the football out from me either.

It's fun to see Iowa being mentioned for recruiting studs. Especially a guy some others seem to think is going to be an absolute stud QB. But it's so far out yet lets wait and see. Hell if the kid we just got for next yrs class Bessinger is half of what he's hyped to be why would this kid come and want to sit behind him for 3 yrs? So there's a lot to have played out yet at this point
Yeah the days of QB competitions at bigger schools are about over.
 
Yeah the days of QB competitions at bigger schools are about over.
Yeah and then there's the whole how long is KF gonna be around everyone has to think he's yr to yr. I'm surprised we're recruiting as well as we are with a coach going into yr 28... Good lord that's a long time.

I was just scrolling through our recruiting class for this yr and damn near most of em are all early enrollees and on campus already. Bessinger is not though. Some fans I'd seen had delusions of grandeur that he could compete for the Qb job day 1... Folks need to pump the brakes on that talk. Leap frogging 4 guys that are all going to be in their 2nd yr with Lesters O when he won't be there for spring ball seems like an impossible leap.

Granted injuries etc can change that as time goes on but I'd say that if Bessinger is starting day 1 then Iowa's got some problems going on more so then this kid would be ready to go. I'd just have to see it to believe it otherwise.
 
Schools and coaches who worry about recruiting over a kid or a good QB transferring because of who is in front of him are delulu. Especially in today's NIL environment. For the first two years of the Lester era we had to go the transfer route because of need and then because of a great opportunity. But, for a developmental program like Iowa, QB development has to be part of that culture. So, while the QBs we have are transfers, they have now been in the program at least a season or two. Beyond that, we seem to be trying to go the now less traveled route of bringing in high school QBs and developing them. In that model, you bring in as many talented QBs as you can recruit to campus and let god sort them out. Candidly, and this has been shown in recent history, the odds of a QB coming to Iowa and staying for 4-5 years is like 25% or less. You make the pool as wide as possible and hope you find one good ones. If the rest transfer, so be it. Its a numbers game.
 
I have thought about this a lot. If I were the parent of a Top 10 type high school QB (not the biggest stud in the class like Arch Manning, but a really good one), somebody with offers from a lot of SEC and Big 10 schools that has a lot of options, I might consider going another way. The typical path is to take a schollie and a small NIL deal at a good school like Iowa, Auburn, Illinois, UCLA, etc., knowing that you are likely going to sit at least a couple years, and hoping you make your way up the depth chart and have a starting gig by your redshirt sophomore year. That is a realistic path and goal for a stud high school QB.

But, isn't a better financial path to consider to go to an FCS or MAC or Pac 12 type of school where you have a soft guarantee that you have a legit shot at QB1 as a true frosh, try and get on the field and show your first two seasons, and then look to transfer to a premier conference and a big payday your third season? Financially, you get to an NIL payday much quicker, and development wise, you are seeing the field right away and not holding a clipboard for your first 2-3 years on campus. I think this makes the most sense if the lesser team you start with is a successful program like a North Dakota State, South Dakota State or Boise State, so that you have a platform to shine at that level, and thenstart to draw interest from the big boys.

If I am James Madison I am recruiting the best high school QBs in the nation with this model as my lure. Go to Oklahoma and red shirt next year, or come here and start game 1.
 
I have thought about this a lot. If I were the parent of a Top 10 type high school QB (not the biggest stud in the class like Arch Manning, but a really good one), somebody with offers from a lot of SEC and Big 10 schools that has a lot of options, I might consider going another way. The typical path is to take a schollie and a small NIL deal at a good school like Iowa, Auburn, Illinois, UCLA, etc., knowing that you are likely going to sit at least a couple years, and hoping you make your way up the depth chart and have a starting gig by your redshirt sophomore year. That is a realistic path and goal for a stud high school QB.

But, isn't a better financial path to consider to go to an FCS or MAC or Pac 12 type of school where you have a soft guarantee that you have a legit shot at QB1 as a true frosh, try and get on the field and show your first two seasons, and then look to transfer to a premier conference and a big payday your third season? Financially, you get to an NIL payday much quicker, and development wise, you are seeing the field right away and not holding a clipboard for your first 2-3 years on campus. I think this makes the most sense if the lesser team you start with is a successful program like a North Dakota State, South Dakota State or Boise State, so that you have a platform to shine at that level, and thenstart to draw interest from the big boys.

If I am James Madison I am recruiting the best high school QBs in the nation with this model as my lure. Go to Oklahoma and red shirt next year, or come here and start game 1.

But I think schools like Iowa will disrupt that plan by paying above market value for a HS kid (but still well below market value for a proven college QB). If he pans out, they then need to count on their culture and development to keep him in the fold.
 
But I think schools like Iowa will disrupt that plan by paying above market value for a HS kid (but still well below market value for a proven college QB). If he pans out, they then need to count on their culture and development to keep him in the fold.
Maybe. And while the Blue Bloods may be meandering away from paying for high school QBs in favor of portal talent, even schools like Iowa are not going to blow their NIL budget on an unproven high school QB, even if he has all the stars. In general, it feels more like the rookie wage scale in the NFL. Yes, there is some money for high school kids, but its not huge money like the proven guys in the transfer portal.

Let's say market for a stud HS kid is 400k and market for a stud transfer portal is 4 million. Even if James Madison can only cough up 250k, aren't you better off taking less money so that you can see the field sooner and give yourself a quicker shot at the bigger contract?

Your path at a big boy school like Iowa is sit for a couple years, hope to win the starting job at some point, but even then, you gotta have a good season before you can demand big boy money at either Iowa or a transfer school. On the flipside, you go to James Madison, start as a true frosh and rack up 3,000 yards and you might be able to write your ticket to a blue blood your true sophomore year. Just like the NFL, college football has evolved into "getting to that second contract" as the most important goal.
 
Schools and coaches who worry about recruiting over a kid or a good QB transferring because of who is in front of him are delulu. Especially in today's NIL environment. For the first two years of the Lester era we had to go the transfer route because of need and then because of a great opportunity. But, for a developmental program like Iowa, QB development has to be part of that culture. So, while the QBs we have are transfers, they have now been in the program at least a season or two. Beyond that, we seem to be trying to go the now less traveled route of bringing in high school QBs and developing them. In that model, you bring in as many talented QBs as you can recruit to campus and let god sort them out. Candidly, and this has been shown in recent history, the odds of a QB coming to Iowa and staying for 4-5 years is like 25% or less. You make the pool as wide as possible and hope you find one good ones. If the rest transfer, so be it. Its a numbers game.
Yeah the schools would be idiotic to think that way. Cause instead of having at least 1 stud qb you'd might end up with none. You go after and try to get the best qbs that you can get let em battle it out and then the kids decide if they want to stick around after having lost the gig or not.

Most programs have qb battles to some extent going on be it for the starting gig or the backup job. There's always going to be a musical chairs game being played with Qbs. We we're just lucky that none of our QBs left. I suspect whomever loses out between Brown and Hecklinski won't be with the team the following season. I would say after spring ball but I guess that portal window doesn't exist anymore and if you're on the roster after the semester starts you're stuck for the rest of the yr. There's only the one window now I think.
 
Yeah the schools would be idiotic to think that way. Cause instead of having at least 1 stud qb you'd might end up with none. You go after and try to get the best qbs that you can get let em battle it out and then the kids decide if they want to stick around after having lost the gig or not.

Most programs have qb battles to some extent going on be it for the starting gig or the backup job. There's always going to be a musical chairs game being played with Qbs. We we're just lucky that none of our QBs left. I suspect whomever loses out between Brown and Hecklinski won't be with the team the following season. I would say after spring ball but I guess that portal window doesn't exist anymore and if you're on the roster after the semester starts you're stuck for the rest of the yr. There's only the one window now I think.
And the thing is with Brown and Heck, its not like they could leave and for sure start somewhere else, unless they dropped down to like NAIA or something. Being the back up at Iowa means you are an injury away from being the starter. Just because you lost the battle does not mean you should transfer. But hey, these kids know everything, right??? :)
 
Good to be in on him and he would be close to home. Not that ratings matter but, if he is the second rated QB on Rivals board, why isn't he a 5-star? I know not many get the coveted 5-star rating but you would think two QBs would get that distinction.
He is the #2 pocket QB in Illinois and #12 in the state. #25 QB in the country, #295 overall.
 
He is the #2 pocket QB in Illinois and #12 in the state. #25 QB in the country, #295 overall.
I heard on LockedOn that one ratings service has him as the #2 overall pocket QB and the other service does not have him ranked nearly as high. Either way, this kid is a high end recruit, and would give KF something to build around for sure.
 
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