Iowa favored by almost two touchdowns over Iowa State.

[haydensly]

This is all done keeping in mind that Iowa is going into this thing with a QB who has never played actual college football before.

Northern Illinois - W

ISU - 50/50 - Predicting this game is the dumbest thing possible in the world of sports. If you think you can predict this game you have not followed Iowa football, you know nothing about Iowa football, and you're a moron just in a general sense.

UNI - W

Michigan - L

OSU - L

Washington - L

Minnesota - L - PJ Schmuck has gotten himself in a rut. A doldrums, so to speak, over the past few years. They could likely beat themselves, but the chances Iowa runs the table on MN, WI, NW, and Purdue are nil and of those four this is the most likely one Iowa loses.

Wisconsin - W

Northwestern - W

Purdue - W

Illinois - L

nebraska - W

6.5 is the O/U. The wildcard is what Bert has Illinois doing late in the year. That's the one that could take Iowa to 7.5.

And before the flame lords get their Huggies soaked and start coming at me...none of Iowa's QBs have ever played a meaningful snap of college football. The most important position on the field, arguably more important than the head coach. Not even Nick Saban can outscheme a terrible QB, and Lester/Ferentz aren't Nick Saban.

Could we see the next Chuck Long? Absolutely. Is it likely? No...

Career stats:

Hank Brown...

View attachment 12211

View attachment 12210
View attachment 12212

Jeremy Hecklinski...

View attachment 12213

Ryan Fitzgerald...

No stats...

Jimmy Sullivan...

No stats...

Good points brought up here. I agree with almost everything but I do think we beat ISU as they are starting from zero but I get your point about the unpredictability with this game. I said it in another thread that we are likely to lose some of these games that we take for granted (Minnesota). And I think the Illinois pick is solid too. And the three losses to open the conference season are easy to see. It would take an upset to win any of these.

I do have more faith in the QB position. The reason for that is I really have to believe they would have at least tried to bring in a transfer at the position if they didn't think one of these two (or both) would work out. I think Lester likes what he has. It won't happen from the first game and will take time. By Nebraska hopefully we will be clicking on all cylinders.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Good points brought up here. I agree with almost everything but I do think we beat ISU as they are starting from zero but I get your point about the unpredictability with this game. I said it in another thread that we are likely to lose some of these games that we take for granted (Minnesota). And I think the Illinois pick is solid too. And the three losses to open the conference season are easy to see. It would take an upset to win any of these.

I do have more faith in the QB position. The reason for that is I really have to believe they would have at least tried to bring in a transfer at the position if they didn't think one of these two (or both) would work out. I think Lester likes what he has. It won't happen from the first game and will take time. By Nebraska hopefully we will be clicking on all cylinders.

I agree that Lester seems to have confidence in the two returning QBs, even though they lack experience. They could have bought another QB on the open market and by all accounts they were not even looking.

They have now been in Lester's system for a full year now and both have been getting a lot of reps through the Spring and Summer drills. Reps and familiarity are underrated. I think we all saw how Gronowski grew as the season went along. He had no Spring reps and was still learning the ropes early on in the season last year, but as he became more familiar with what Lester does, he got better and better. Barring injury, I think whomever the starter is will finish right in the middle of the conference statistically.

 

[HuckFinn]

Lots of teams have to start a new season with an untested QB. I will go with a really good coaching staff that we will be just fine. They were happy with no portal picks from the get go.

 

[CP87]

We won 9 games with Deacon Hill. The QB position is overrated.

We averaged 8.8 wins/year from 2020 - 2024 with a combination of Petras, Padilla, McNamara, Hill, Sullivan, and Stratton.

Granted, much of that was against a B1G West schedule, but also most of it was with BF as our QB coach and OC.

Our skill positions should be as good as they have been since 2019 and 2020. Our OL has reloaded nicely, by all accounts.

I would take the over on the Vegas over/under of 7.5 wins.

 

[Hawkboys]

We averaged 8.8 wins/year from 2020 - 2024 with a combination of Petras, Padilla, McNamara, Hill, Sullivan, and Stratton.

Granted, much of that was against a B1G West schedule, but also most of it was with BF as our QB coach and OC.

Our skill positions should be as good as they have been since 2019 and 2020. Our OL has reloaded nicely, by all accounts.

I would take the over on the Vegas over/under of 7.5 wins.

I think all those teams had a better D than this team will.

 

[BILLYBOBSTEXAS]

I think all those teams had a better D than this team will.

You might be right, but don't discount the effect of P.P. He can work wonders with average talent.

 

[CP87]

I think all those teams had a better D than this team will.

And better special teams.

I have more confidence in the D than the special teams this upcoming season. Our D was okay last year, but they have not been creating turnovers or sacks at a high rate the last 2 years. I think we might actually see some improvment on that front.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

And better special teams.

I have more confidence in the D than the special teams this upcoming season. Our D was okay last year, but they have not been creating turnovers or sacks at a high rate the last 2 years. I think we might actually see some improvment on that front.

I'm worried about the front 4. I have a feeling our DTs will get pushed around. Our LBs I think despite their inexperience are talented and will play well. Secondary is kinda a crap shoot. Hopefully Lee and Watson will play well, Lutmer will be great. Beyond them the safety spots will be up for grabs with the transfers.

Put it all together and I feel like we may struggle against teams that run the ball well and can play action off of it. The special teams is a huge crapshoot. Damn near new everything between coach down to the long snapper. I suspect they won't be great. I just hope there's no huge blunders

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I get everyone's worry and slight pessimism over the D and Specials. A lot of unknowns in both players and ST coaching. I think we should all have some comfort in the system that PP and KF have built. Its a process. And its been in place for over two decades now. And, Iowa now has an advantage that it did not have a decade ago. The ability to buy talented players.

STs will assuredly take a step back given the losses, but I suspect will still be good. They won't win us games, but they should not lose us games either.

This year will be a defining year for PP. Is he truly a defensive guru? Or did he get an undeserved crown as one of the best DCs in the country by feasting on the shitty West for all these years?