Importance of Explosive Plays (from The Athletic)

C

CP87

Well-Known Member
As a heads-up to mods, this is not paywall protected info, but rather info from an email sent out promoting an Athletic podcast. So, I think it is okay to copy-and-paste, but feel free to delete if not.

I thought all y'all would find this interesting.

All about explosive plays


If you want to understand the state of the NFL in under 90 minutes, "The Athletic Football Show" has you covered. Specifically via their "Lessons Learned" episode, an annual recounting of what the final four teams teach us about winning in the modern NFL. I never miss it.

Main thing? Defense doesn't win championships. Explosive plays do. It's the first takeaway of a nugget-filled episode that's now live on all platforms. I wanted to dive into it with you.

What's an explosive? Unfortunately, football media can't agree on that question. There's no official definition for what exactly qualifies as a chunk play, but TruMedia defines it as as a run of 12-plus yards or a pass of 16-plus. We'll stick with that.

The importance of explosive plays isn't new, of course. They have been a focus of Kyle Shanahan's run game for years. They were how Sean McVay took the league by storm. And every coach before them also sought to move the ball in bursts. The modern counterbalance came via a defense focused on stopping these plays, the Vic Fangio scheme that has permeated the league.

Still, they're as important as ever. While turnovers and field position still matter, big gains are increasingly realized as the key differentiator, both in college football and in the NFL.

A 2022 data study by PFF found that having one explosive play tripled the expected points value of a drive. Unlike when a team needs three downs at a time to methodically move downfield, a chunk play reduces the number of times an offense has to avoid making a mistake.

And thanks to 2024's NFL kickoff rule changes, a single explosive puts an offense even closer to field goal range than it did at the time of that study.

The most effective way to measure explosives is explosive-play margin, the difference between the number of chunk plays each offense gains per game and the number its defense allows.

It's no coincidence that the final four teams led the league in that stat's regular-season margin:

Explosives are just the first of many lessons the trio of Robert Mays, ESPN's Bill Barnwell and Yahoo's Nate Nice unpack in this episode. It's one of the most can't-miss podcasts of each season, and you can listen to it now.
 
By the definition above (12+ yd run, 16=+ yd pass), Iowa's offense had 6 explosive plays vs. Nebraska, and 9 vs. Vanderbilt. The biggest difference in those 2 games vs. earlier in the year? Explosive plays in the pass game were abundant.
 
MelroseHawkins said:
It should really be about "Importance Of Good Defense Stopping Opponent's Explosive Plays".
Click to expand...

Yes, that is mentioned in the original blurb posted. The 4 NFL teams in the conference championships were the top 4 in the league in explosive play differential (the number they create - the number they give up).
 
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