If Iowa Goes Chalk, We Go 10-2

[NorthKCHawk]

Let's say Iowa wins every game it is favored in and loses every game it is a dog. They should go 10-2.

Iowa is favored at home against Hoosiers and is a dog against the Clowns. If they come out of that as scheduled, Iowa should still be ranked in the Top 20. They then have two cupcakes and Maryland where we will be the clear favorites. That takes us into a home game with PSU where Iowa would be 4-1 and probably ranked around 15th. PSU has Wisky, Auburn and Indiana before us. If they are undefeated, well, they could be ranked well ahead of us, but odds are against that. At best, that game likely would be a push. More likely, Iowa is favored at home.

Iowa will be favored against Purdue, and likely a dog at Wisconsin. Coming out of that, Iowa should still be ranked in the Top 20. If so, Iowa should be favored at NW, home to Minny, senior day with Illinois, and at a hopefully imploding Nebraska program.

10-2 or 9-3 depending upon how you view Penn State.

You can see now why Vegas has the over/under at 8.5 (which certainly made me look twice. Aren't we always 7.5???). Even if Iowa stubs its toe once, it still covers.

 

[Grady]

When it comes to betting season totals, I saw somewhere that more folks have bet the Under on Iowa's 8.5 than any other BTen team total. 8.5 seems high, but it's not unreasonable for the reasons stated above. Personally, I wouldn't bet on it either way.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

So, would 10-2 this year land us the Citrus Bowl?

 

[Northside Hawk]

So, would 10-2 this year land us the Citrus Bowl?

Good possibility, because it means we will have probably beat Northwestern and Wisconsin.

We've been to that bowl only once (but the finish was memorable) We've been to the Outback Bowl five or six times. Being Wisconsin's biatch and some untilmely losses to Northwestern are the two biggest reasons why.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Good possibility, because it means we will have probably beat Northwestern and Wisconsin.

We've been to that bowl only once (but the finish was memorable) We've been to the Outback Bowl five or six times. Being Wisconsin's biatch and some untilmely losses to Northwestern are the two biggest reasons why.

Actually, it doesn't mean that at all if we are sticking with the exercise above. If things go chalk, we won't beat Wisconsin. And, if Wisconsin goes chalk, its only loss will be to Notre Dame. If Wisconsin beats us, they have to lose two conference games for us to jump them. Chalk means we finish second in the West and we are probably 3-4 in the pecking order for bowls in the conference.

And yes, I realize things never go chalk.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I am worried about both lines. I know that these are usually a strength, but we have a lot of untestest and undersized guys on both sides of the ball.

I am not worried about QB play per se. If they guys around him play well, Petras is plenty good enough to put Ws on the wall.

 

[teachercoach]

My biggest worry from the list above is - (4). Low Vax rate.
All the others are football related. Experienced coaching staff. Will figure out the football stuff as best as possible. If suddenly a position group or 5 guys who play a lot are out for a 10-day period...... that's new for any squad. NW doesn't have this worry at this moment

 

[NorthKCHawk]

God dammit, don't get my thread locked because you feel the need to bring up the damn V word. Fry will shut it down like an old man slams a door on a Cub Scout selling raffle tickets.

Seriously, knock it off.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I'd sign up for 10-2 regardless of who the losses are to right now. I think these first two games will be interesting. Our D is going to be really tested right out of the gates. Can our O keep up if they give up 25 plus points? (which we haven't done for like 2 yrs) That to me will be what I watch for. Our young inexperienced DL is also on the smaller side. Not one of em is 3 bills. So hope they have enough bodies to rotate in cause they'll be getting pushed around I bet

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I would take 8-4 with wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern right now. I think that would tie for the division and might get Iowa into the Big Ten championship game through the benefit of tiebreakers.

This season is going to come down to a few simple things:

1. OL blocking.
2. If OL blocks, can Petras deliver.
3. Injuries
4. Absences because of COVID because kids refuse to get vaxxed (please vaccinate guys; it's easy!)
5. Turnover margin....bounce of the ball in the close games
6. Start with a win over Indiana to gain a little momentum

I'm not worried about our D-Line.

I am I'm curious why you may not be. I think they can rush the passer well. But how they'll hold up against the run I'll be interested to see. We don't have a 300 lb guy amongst them. Not much experience besides at DE. I think it's fair to be worried till they show us we shouldn't be anyway.

 

[guffus]

Actually, it doesn't mean that at all if we are sticking with the exercise above. If things go chalk, we won't beat Wisconsin. And, if Wisconsin goes chalk, its only loss will be to Notre Dame. If Wisconsin beats us, they have to lose two conference games for us to jump them. Chalk means we finish second in the West and we are probably 3-4 in the pecking order for bowls in the conference.

And yes, I realize things never go chalk.

Yup, If Iowa goes 10-2, with loses to ISU, Wiscy, then Iowa would probably be #3 in the Big ten pecking order because they beat both PSU and Indy.

That might be enough to get Iowa to #12 in the CFP which would probably result in a Citrus Bowl but might get Iowa into a NY6 bowl.

 

[Fryowa]

God dammit, don't get my thread locked because you feel the need to bring up the damn V word. Fry will shut it down like an old man slams a door on a Cub Scout selling raffle tickets.

Seriously, knock it off.

Deleted the post and I'm not going to lock it unless people get crazy, but yes...don't do that.

I don't get any Cub Scouts selling raffle tickets, but our school's band sells those Little Caesar's pizza kits every year and I buy the shit out of 'em. Seriously, if any of you guys get kids at your door selling them you better grab some. They're kinda expensive and I'm sure the school gets like a tenth of a percent of your money, but they're freakin' awesome.

 

[ChosenChildren]

Deleted the post and I'm not going to lock it unless people get crazy, but yes...don't do that.

I don't get any Cub Scouts selling raffle tickets, but our school's band sells those Little Caesar's pizza kits every year and I buy the shit out of 'em. Seriously, if any of you guys get kids at your door selling them you better grab some. They're kinda expensive and I'm sure the school gets like a tenth of a percent of your money, but they're freakin' awesome.

Whoops. Sorry. I get it

 

[CP87]

This is what I wrote prior to the 2019 season when Iowa's over/under was 7.5 and a ton of people were picking a 7-5 season:

The Hawks have hit the over on their season win total 4 of the last 6 years. They have won 8 or more regular season games in 4 of the last 6. They have averaged 8.3 regular seasons wins per year over that span. Their recruiting has been trending up over that span, and they are projected to have multiple first round picks on their roster. If you want to take the under on their 7.5 projection, be my guest, but I think you are throwing your money away.

They won 9 in 2019.

Since then, they have added their 2 highest recruiting classes in the last decade (#35 nationally in 2020, #24 nationally in 2021); 9 players from those 2 classes are on the 2-deep.

Their over/under prior to the 2020 season was 4.5, and they won 6.

They probably have 5 guys that could go early-entry after this year, and they are spread across position groups (Linderbaum, LaPorta, Goodson, Campbell, Belton).

They have been ranked between 13 - 16 in football outsiders FEI rankings for the last 4 years.

Here is a decade of data on season over/unders, actual win totals, and season-end efficiency rankings.



They have hit the over the last 4 seasons. They had the 5th best point differential in P5 last year, even after the stinkbomb over the first 2 games.

I think with an infusion of young talent and a more cohesive and balanced offense (they had their lowest offensive efficiency ranking since 2016 last year due to spotty QB play, that has to be better this year), they will get 9 wins out of the schedule.

 

[SCHawkeye2]

I think chalk would be 9-3.
But we usually lose two we should win, and win one we should lose, so a reasonable projection would be 8-4 / 6-3 B10.
Should be good for our usual 2nd or 3rd in the West and Outback Bowl.

 

[thedukeofearl]

Deleted the post and I'm not going to lock it unless people get crazy, but yes...don't do that.

I don't get any Cub Scouts selling raffle tickets, but our school's band sells those Little Caesar's pizza kits every year and I buy the shit out of 'em. Seriously, if any of you guys get kids at your door selling them you better grab some. They're kinda expensive and I'm sure the school gets like a tenth of a percent of your money, but they're freakin' awesome.

Little Caesar's Pretzel Crust is very good