Folgueiras Should Be Starting Over Koch

[Fryowa]

First things first, this isn't a diss to Koch. Great player and will be a crucial guy the rest of his time here just like he is now.

But...

Folgueiras needs to be starting and getting the extra minutes Koch is. Koch has 599 minutes to AF's 466. Looking at any mix of stats AF is CLEARLY the more productive and efficient player.

Box Plus/Minus: AF = 8.2, Koch = 5.9 - This is stark because it's not adjusted for minutes and Koch has 133 more than AF.
Win Shares/40 minutes: AF = .203, Koch = .150


PTS/40 minutes: AF = 17.2, Koch = 10.8
3P/40 minutes: AF = 2.2, Koch = 2.0
RB/40 minutes: AF = 7.6, Koch = 5.1

 

[Grady]

Interesting comparison. This doesn't break down minutes/per game, and my gut sense is that Folgueiras has been getting more minutes/per game the last couple weeks. Reports are that the coaches felt it took awhile for F to adjust to Iowa's schemes, but that he's coming on...and that's been reflected in his increased minutes. I don't care who gets the start -- as long as F gets more minutes going forward. He's earned it, as the #s show.

 

[Fryowa]

Interesting comparison. This doesn't break down minutes/per game, and my gut sense is that Folgueiras has been getting more minutes/per game the last couple weeks. Reports are that the coaches felt it took awhile for F to adjust to Iowa's schemes, but that he's coming on...and that's been reflected in his increased minutes. I don't care who gets the start -- as long as F gets more minutes going forward. He's earned it, as the #s show.

They've both played the same number of games and total minutes are above. 26 for Koch and 20.3 for AF.

That's the point of the per 40 minutes stats. PPG doesn't mean anything comparatively between 2 players unless they both play the exact same number of minutes.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

Yeah, seems like the general trend line is that Folgueiras' minutes are on the rise - 27, 28 and 25 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games. Depending on match-ups, I think the idea is for Folgueiras' minutes to come at the expense of Manyawu. As long as Folgueiras can bring the intensity and physicality on defense, which he has been doing of late.

I like the line-up when he and Koch are the two bigs. And Stirtz and Banks, with either Combs or Sage.

With that, the Hawks have 5 guys at essentially 40% or above from three. They can really spread the floor.

 

[Fryowa]

...my gut sense is that Folgueiras has been getting more minutes/per game the last couple weeks....

Nope. The previous 4 games have all been pretty much exactly 6 minute differential. Indiana and Rutgers was 10.8 and 13.2 respectively.

 

[Grady]

They've both played the same number of games and total minutes are above. 26 for Koch and 20.3 for AF.

That's the point of the per 40 minutes stats. PPG doesn't mean anything comparatively between 2 players unless they both play the exact same number of minutes.

I meant the min/per game for each were not broken down by individual games. Swirlin's numbers that F's minutes have been over 25 min/game for 3 of the last 4 games confirms my gut feeling that his minutes are increasing as the season goes on.

 

[Fryowa]

Yeah, seems like the general trend line is that Folgueiras' minutes are on the rise - 27, 28 and 25 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games.

But...Koch's minutes are going up at the same rate. He's still getting the same amount of extra minutes over AF. What I'm saying is AF needs more minutes than Koch. If you do the math of their per 40 mins stats, those 6 minutes a game will make a big difference in B1G play IMO

 

[Grady]

Well, it's not disputable that F's getting more minutes, but those minutes are obviously not at the expense of Koch's minutes. So who's getting less minutes with AF getting more? Manyawu? Banks?

 

[Hawkboys]

Why not both . Gif?

 

[haydensly]

Folgueiras has been coming in for Manyawu more often lately.

I'm not sure if any of the stats above reflect this but Koch's defense has been very good. The last game guarding Martinelli I thought he was outstanding. Folgueiras has been good on defense as well. But I'm not sure I would want Koch out much more than he is right now. His offense has not always been there but he is a decent rebounder. And it is his defense that is keeping him on the floor, IMO. Especially given BMC's requirements of playing defense at a high level.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Koch plays defense. Watching that skinny kid battling much bigger guys in the paint the last couple games has been fun to watch. I have no problem with him starting. He has become a junk yard dog, which is what BM breeds. Folg is coming on. He will be a key piece down the stretch. He doesn't have to start to be a difference maker as he has already shown. Aslo, Koch would not be who I would bench in favor of Folg.

 

[Fryowa]

Koch plays defense. Watching that skinny kid battling much bigger guys in the paint the last couple games has been fun to watch. I have no problem with him starting. He has become a junk yard dog, which is what BM breeds. Folg is coming on. He will be a key piece down the stretch. He doesn't have to start to be a difference maker as he has already shown. Aslo, Koch would not be who I would bench in favor of Folg.

Al-Fo has more than double the defensive rebounds and assists Koch does per minute played. He also gets fouled more than twice what Koch does.

Stats are stats. At the very beginning of the conference schedule I'd have said Koch gets the nod, But Al has proven he can hang in the B1G. Moneyball isn't always intuitive.

I'm not saying Koch sucks and shouldn't play, but their minutes should be reversed.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Al-Fo has more than double the defensive rebounds and assists Koch does per minute played. He also gets fouled more than twice what Koch does.

Stats are stats. At the very beginning of the conference schedule I'd have said Koch gets the nod, But Al has proven he can hang in the B1G. Moneyball isn't always intuitive.

I'm not saying Koch sucks and shouldn't play, but their minutes should be reversed.

I trust Ben more than you, Fry.

I also trust my eyes.

 

[HuckFinn]

First things first, this isn't a diss to Koch. Great player and will be a crucial guy the rest of his time here just like he is now.

But...

Folgueiras needs to be starting and getting the extra minutes Koch is. Koch has 599 minutes to AF's 466. Looking at any mix of stats AF is CLEARLY the more productive and efficient player.

Box Plus/Minus: AF = 8.2, Koch = 5.9 - This is stark because it's not adjusted for minutes and Koch has 133 more than AF.
Win Shares/40 minutes: AF = .203, Koch = .150

View attachment 11982
PTS/40 minutes: AF = 17.2, Koch = 10.8
3P/40 minutes: AF = 2.2, Koch = 2.0
RB/40 minutes: AF = 7.6, Koch = 5.1

View attachment 11983

Coach really likes Koch’s

Koch plays defense. Watching that skinny kid battling much bigger guys in the paint the last couple games has been fun to watch. I have no problem with him starting. He has become a junk yard dog, which is what BM breeds. Folg is coming on. He will be a key piece down the stretch. He doesn't have to start to be a difference maker as he has already shown. Aslo, Koch would not be who I would bench in favor of Folg.

Coach has spoken highly of Koch’s ability to guard multiple positions. And, I do like Cam’s very physical presence and a few offensive rebounds. He plays hard. I like all three of them.

 

[kameltoez102]

While I have not been able to watch every game I remember a couple where Alavro got into early foul trouble which will contribute to some of the discrepancy. If I also remember correctly some of those fouls were not good fouls and came very quickly after each other. I think Alvaro is too inconsistent with his decision making. At times his play is aggressive and well balanced but other times his passes and defense are lazy. Kock has been more consistent in my opinion

 

[NorthKCHawk]

As many of us have said on here many times, it matters more who finishes the game than who starts. Cam, Koch, and Al all will get a lot of minutes and the one who is playing the best will get the most minutes. This thread is a solution in search of a problem. But, that is mostly what we do around here!

 

[Fryowa]

As many of us have said on here many times, it matters more who finishes the game than who starts. Cam, Koch, and Al all will get a lot of minutes and the one who is playing the best will get the most minutes. This thread is a solution in search of a problem. But, that is mostly what we do around here!

Starting threads is an art form. It's not the message, it's the potential for getting people worked up into a tizzy. And then they get worked up into a double tizzy when you admit you posted knowing it would just work people into a tizzy. That's the fun part.

I still think Alfo should have more minutes.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Starting threads is an art form. It's not the message, it's the potential for getting people worked up into a tizzy. And then they get worked up into a double tizzy when you admit you posted knowing it would just work people into a tizzy. That's the fun part.

I still think Alfo should have more minutes.

I think Alfo should earn more minutes. He has been. Slowly as he gets used to the speed of the game. He is going to be a key piece going down the stretch. Banks and Alfo are the two closest things we have to reliable scorers behind Stirtz.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

My gut instinct is that Ben would prefer to give Big Al more and more of Manyawu's minutes. If Big Al can set good screens, he makes Iowa so much harder to defend on the offensive end. The defense can't sag off on pick and roll action, because he can hit the three. If you switch a guard onto him, he can shoot over him. Or back him down into the paint and look for the open man when the double comes (he's been doing a lot of that lately). That gets the defense into scramble mode, which plays right into Iowa's strength of swinging the ball and giving up good shots for a great shot. Sage and Howard are also great at cutting to the hoop for easy baskets as the defense starts to break down.

If the defense doesn't switch on the screens with Big Al, a lot of bigs have a tough time sticking with him at the top of the key if he decides to drive. And if he moves to the corner, a big has to stay out on him because of his 3 point shooting. Things really open up for Iowa with five 3 point shooters out there. But Ben isn't willing to compromise on defense.

Settles has consistently said from the start of this year that Big Al was the x-factor on this team, and the guy who can elevate them if he reaches his ceiling.

I think what we've seen is McCollum pushing him to reach his ceiling. Maybe he should have received more minutes earlier this year...or maybe McCollum is using that to squeeze all the potential he can out of him.

 

[jardinero]

Interesting comparison. This doesn't break down minutes/per game, and my gut sense is that Folgueiras has been getting more minutes/per game the last couple weeks. Reports are that the coaches felt it took awhile for F to adjust to Iowa's schemes, but that he's coming on...and that's been reflected in his increased minutes. I don't care who gets the start -- as long as F gets more minutes going forward. He's earned it, as the #s show.

We are lucky to have both these guys, so let's not try to pit them against each other........