CFN Analyzing Iowa's Schedule

Decent outsider analysis, except for that whole "attention to details" thing.

Hawks beat the kitties 21-10, not 18-10. The game must've ended past his bedtime.
Also, Paul RHOADS coaches lil' sis, not his doppleganger Paul Rhodes.

Despite the obvious 8th grade study hall posting, I'd take 10-2 and be happy.
 
DDHawkeye said:
Scout.com: 5/16 Blog - Analyzing Iowa's Schedule

Didn't see this posted yet. He's pretty ignorant... he thinks we're going to be 10-2.
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????????????

I thought he was actually pretty realistic in his predictions & mention of the toss-up games.

Ignorant does not = an opinion


I thought he was pretty insightful or at least he seemed to know the history of last year pretty well. I'll guess that this is a local (Iowa) writer that they prob hit up to submit an article.
 
Until we actually beat osu, I mark that game down as a loss.

They just have our number. We win about once a decade so I guess if that is the case, this is our last chance this decade to beat them.

The osu/Ia game is like Ia/psu only with whip cream and a cherry on top. They just have our number in spades, and hearts, and diamonds, and clubs. If Iowa wants to beat osu, KF cannot be conservative, which means we aren't going to beat them often.
 
busabus114 said:
What an idiot. We are going to go 12-0 and win every game by 20+ points
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Finally, someone with a reasonably post. You know that argument people make every few years when a college team is really good? The argument that college team "A" could beat NFL team "X"? Well, Iowa is team "A" and the sooner you all start realizing they will win the BCS championship by 30, led by Heisman Winner(s) Stanzi/Clayborn (they will share it b/c both will be so dominant), they better off we will all be. See you all in Glendale with post-party at Disney World.
 
I liked the breakdown. Some of the arguing points that it brings up rely a bit too heavily upon history ... however, sometimes time-series data is all ya got.

I don't understand why folks wonder if Michigan is a sleeping giant currently. They're still going to be a pretty young squad, they're surprisingly thin in depth at a number of key spots (namely OL and CB), and while the Michigan O was improved ... they still only averaged 321 yards per game in Big 10 play (only up 30 yards per game from the prior year).

While having a more experienced Denard Robinson could very well help spark the Michigan O to average more in the ball-park of 370 yards per game (in league play) ... how is their D going to fare? They're going to be running their 3rd different defensive scheme in 3 years and they're coming off losing their 2 best defenders. It seems to me that a 3-man defensive front with pretty young DBs isn't necessarily the best recipe for success on D. If Iowa and Wisconsin can have success in blitz pick-up ... both teams feature offensive styles that could tear apart a 3-3-5.

Also, while Michigan certainly still has plenty of talent at RB ... they lost some very solid guys in C. Brown and Minor.

As it was, Minor, Mesko, Warren, and Graham were the primary reasons why Michigan managed to stay in the game against Iowa in '09. With all 4 guys gone ... I fail to see how they're necessarily going to fare better. And, before folks try to remind me how Robinson "gouged" the Iowa D in '09 ... let me remind folks that the Iowa D schemed specifically to take away Forcier's play-making ability. In 2010, the Iowa D will be specifically scheming to account for what Denard Robinson brings to the table ... AND, what's more, they'll have the benefit of a bye week to get prepared.

Anyhow, the point I was getting at ... Michigan is still far from being a "sleeping giant" at this juncture.
 
That's pretty much how I see the schedule right now with a rough look...we'll put it down in ink in a few weeks.

SURE WINS: EIU, BSU, INDIANA, MSU. MINN, ISU
TOSS UPS: The rest, to one degree or another..and somehow 10-2, possible BCS at large bid or Cap One.
 
I'm very optimistic and have very high expectations for this team, but in all honesty I will be disappointed if this team isnt contending for the NC when they welcome OSU to town, yes I know the OL will be the judge of the whole season, but with the experience of this team anything but a BCS bowl will be a letdown to me. Just my opinion.
 
JonDMiller said:
That's pretty much how I see the schedule right now with a rough look...we'll put it down in ink in a few weeks.

SURE WINS: EIU, BSU, INDIANA, MSU. MINN, ISU
TOSS UPS: The rest, to one degree or another..and somehow 10-2, possible BCS at large bid or Cap One.
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Jon,

MSU, a sure win, really? By the time they play Iowa their OL will probably have come together. Once that happens, I really like their O. The big question is their D. They have some great players, they don't lack in talent category, and Dantonio places a nice emphasis on D. I think that it's a mistake to view MSU as the same old MSU program ... and yet many folks still do. The big thing that undermined MSU in '09 was that they had an early season QB competition and that their pass D was lacking.

They no longer are contending with the QB competition and they were only 15 points away from having a 10-win regular season! Their story in '09 really wasn't all that different from our story in '08.

However, that said, if Oren Wilson remains off the team ... then given their losses on the DL and OL ... that certainly could end up favoring our Hawks.
 
There are a lot of variables to consider when predicting a won loss record.

I can see Iowa going anywhere from 8-4 to 12-0 with an 8-4 record more probable than a 12-0 mark.
 
Regarding Northwestern, pretty much the only guy who makes me nervous is Dunsmore. He poses a significant mismatch against most Ds he goes up against.

Ebert, Stewart, and Fields probably will allow them to be adequately stocked at WR. However, there may still be some issues with Persa's passing game. I don't necessarily anticipate that he'll be able to pick apart Iowa's D quite like Bacher and Kafka were able to. Of course, in many respects, Persa is even more of a danger with his feet. I'll be very interested in seeing how we end up defending against Northwestern in 2010.

Regardless, I like our chances because they won't be able to play with quite the same chip on their shoulder that they usually seem to play with. Defending their honor at Ryan Field tends to give us the advantage in my, not so humble, opinion.

While I think that Fitz is a very good coach and that they have a mighty fine DC ... I really anticipate that Iowa finally has the game that they "should be having" against NW in '10.
 
My take:

Highly probable wins (prob. of victory > 0.900 for each game): EIU, BSU, IU, ISU, MINN

Likely wins ( 0.700 < prob. of victory < 0.900 ): NW, UA, MSU, MICH

Borderline wins (0.550 < prob. of victory < 0.700): UW, PSU

Push (0.450 < prob. of victory < 0.550): tOSU

"BY THE NUMBERS" worst case: (Calculating using the low range probability values as our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 8.85 games
standard deviation = 1.43 games

"BY THE NUMBERS" best case: (using the high-range values for our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 10.55 games
standard deviation = 1.01 games

Now using a 2-standard deviation "rule of thumb" in order to discern what should constitute a "usual" outcome for each null hypothesis I arrive at the following results:

Worst-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 6 and 11.7 wins with a mean outcome right in the middle. This obviously reveals BOTH the lack of resolution that you can have in this sort of analysis AND the REALITY that a team like Iowa really CAN have a VERY narrow margin for error.

Best-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 8.5 and 12 wins, with a mean outcome at right around 10.5 wins.

Conclusion: The reality in 2010 probably lies somewhere in between the worst and best cases. I'm inclined to bet that a mean of 9.75 wins with a standard deviation of 1.25 games is probably the closest thing to reality for the 2010 Hawk squad. That would imply that an 11 win season would simply be a single standard deviation away from the mean ... making it a VERY attainable outcome. However, nearly equally likely would also be an 8.5 win season (roughly speaking 8 wins with a game right on the border that could go either way).
 
homerHAWKeye777 said:
My take:

Highly probable wins (prob. of victory > 0.900 for each game): EIU, BSU, IU, ISU, MINN

Likely wins ( 0.700 < prob. of victory < 0.900 ): NW, UA, MSU, MICH

Borderline wins (0.550 < prob. of victory < 0.700): UW, PSU

Push (0.450 < prob. of victory < 0.550): tOSU

"BY THE NUMBERS" worst case: (Calculating using the low range probability values as our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 8.85 games
standard deviation = 1.43 games

"BY THE NUMBERS" best case: (using the high-range values for our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 10.55 games
standard deviation = 1.01 games

Now using a 2-standard deviation "rule of thumb" in order to discern what should constitute a "usual" outcome for each null hypothesis I arrive at the following results:

Worst-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 6 and 11.7 wins with a mean outcome right in the middle. This obviously reveals BOTH the lack of resolution that you can have in this sort of analysis AND the REALITY that a team like Iowa really CAN have a VERY narrow margin for error.

Best-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 8.5 and 12 wins, with a mean outcome at right around 10.5 wins.

Conclusion: The reality in 2010 probably lies somewhere in between the worst and best cases. I'm inclined to bet that a mean of 9.75 wins with a standard deviation of 1.25 games is probably the closest thing to reality for the 2010 Hawk squad. That would imply that an 11 win season would simply be a single standard deviation away from the mean ... making it a VERY attainable outcome. However, nearly equally likely would also be an 8.5 win season (roughly speaking 8 wins with a game right on the border that could go either way).
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I think your math might be slightly off.... by my calculations 12 regular season wins = 100% probability. Also, 13 wins = 100% probability.
 
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