Bubble summary - 5 spots left

R

Rlesterfan

Well-Known Member
If you put Minnesota, Oklahoma and Villanova in the tournament (most do, but these are the weakest 3 of the locks), then 5 spots are left for these teams :

Boise St.
Kentucky
Tennessee
LaSalle
St. Marys
M-Tenn St.
Viginia
Iowa
Mississippi
S Miss
Alabama

This assumes no bid stealers, but those possibilities are shrinking.

I think the 4 SEC teams will consolidate to 2 spots in the dance as they play each other, and 3 spots
will be among these 6 teams :

Boise St.
LaSalle
St. Marys
M-Tenn St.
Viginia
Iowa
S Miss

Yesterday was a very good day for Iowa, one more day like that and we are in.
 


I like this guy's stuff:
Basketball Predictions: Bubble Watch: Heading Into March 15th

11 teams for 7 spots.
He doesn't lock teams in until they are almost certainly in.




Tournament locks (39 teams):
Duke, Miami (Fl), North Carolina, NC State, Florida Gulf Coast, Butler, St.Louis, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Liberty, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, James Madison, Valparaiso, Harvard, Iona, Creighton, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, LIU, Belmont, Arizona, Bucknell, Florida, Davidson, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (17, of which 10 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, SWAC, WAC)

Teams that look safe (7):
VCU, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Memphis, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (7):
Villanova, Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, Wichita State, Colorado, Oregon

The Bubble (11 teams for 7 bids):
Virginia, La Salle, Iowa, Oklahoma, Boise State, California, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, St. Mary's

Best of the rest (4):
UMass, Baylor, Southern Miss, Arkansas

Long shots (9):
Florida State, Maryland, Charlotte, Akron, Arizona State, Stanford, LSU, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
 


Rlesterfan said:
If you put Minnesota, Oklahoma and Villanova in the tournament (most do, but these are the weakest 3 of the locks), then 5 spots are left for these teams :

Boise St.
Kentucky
Tennessee
LaSalle
St. Marys
M-Tenn St.
Viginia
Iowa
Mississippi
S Miss
Alabama

This assumes no bid stealers, but those possibilities are shrinking.

I think the 4 SEC teams will consolidate to 2 spots in the dance as they play each other, and 3 spots
will be among these 6 teams :

Boise St.
LaSalle
St. Marys
M-Tenn St.
Viginia
Iowa
S Miss

Yesterday was a very good day for Iowa, one more day like that and we are in.
Click to expand...

Id say 3 At Large spots for

Boise St
Middle Tennessee ST
Virginia
Iowa

The only teams that can improve are Iowa and Virginia
 




A win over MSU and the Hawks are in - I was at 75/25, more like 90/10. Same good defense as last night, and some better shooting tonight - oh yeah.
 


Some help from the refs with the conference wanting as many teams as possible in the tournament is what I am looking for. Pull a Richmond on MSU!

Before someone gets sanctimonious. Look up "sense of humor."
 


storminspank said:
I like this guy's stuff:
Basketball Predictions: Bubble Watch: Heading Into March 15th

11 teams for 7 spots.
He doesn't lock teams in until they are almost certainly in.




Tournament locks (39 teams):
Duke, Miami (Fl), North Carolina, NC State, Florida Gulf Coast, Butler, St.Louis, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Liberty, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, James Madison, Valparaiso, Harvard, Iona, Creighton, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, LIU, Belmont, Arizona, Bucknell, Florida, Davidson, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (17, of which 10 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, SWAC, WAC)

Teams that look safe (7):
VCU, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Memphis, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (7):
Villanova, Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, Wichita State, Colorado, Oregon

The Bubble (11 teams for 7 bids):
Virginia, La Salle, Iowa, Oklahoma, Boise State, California, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, St. Mary's

Best of the rest (4):
UMass, Baylor, Southern Miss, Arkansas

Long shots (9):
Florida State, Maryland, Charlotte, Akron, Arizona State, Stanford, LSU, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
Click to expand...

He hesitates on Oklahoma and Cal. I agree that Oklahoma has some holes in their resume, and could be at risk if all or most of the bubble teams win today. If think Cal is a lock.
 


storminspank said:
I like this guy's stuff:
Basketball Predictions: Bubble Watch: Heading Into March 15th

11 teams for 7 spots.
He doesn't lock teams in until they are almost certainly in.




Tournament locks (39 teams):
Duke, Miami (Fl), North Carolina, NC State, Florida Gulf Coast, Butler, St.Louis, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Liberty, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, James Madison, Valparaiso, Harvard, Iona, Creighton, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, LIU, Belmont, Arizona, Bucknell, Florida, Davidson, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (17, of which 10 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, SWAC, WAC)

Teams that look safe (7):
VCU, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Memphis, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (7):
Villanova, Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, Wichita State, Colorado, Oregon

The Bubble (11 teams for 7 bids):
Virginia, La Salle, Iowa, Oklahoma, Boise State, California, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, St. Mary's

Best of the rest (4):
UMass, Baylor, Southern Miss, Arkansas

Long shots (9):
Florida State, Maryland, Charlotte, Akron, Arizona State, Stanford, LSU, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
Click to expand...

I think of the "Bubble" teams he has listed, these teams are pretty much in:
1. Oklahoma
2. Cal
3. Tennessee
4. Kentucky
5. St. Mary's

I think that then leaves 6 teams for 2 spots:
1. Virginia - avg 51 for RPI/BPI, 4 wins vs RPI Top 50 and 4 losses vs RPI 150+
2. Iowa - avg 59 for RPI/BPI, 4 wins vs RPI Top 50 and 1 loss vs RPI 150+
3. LaSalle - avg 44 for RPI/BPI, 2 wins vs RPI Top 50 and 1 loss vs RPI 150+
4. Boise St. - avg 46 for RPI/BPI, 4 wins vs RPI Top 50 and 2 losses vs RPI 150+
5. Alabama - avg 63 for RPI/BPI, 2 wins vs RPI Top 50 and 2 losses vs RPI 150+
6. Ole Miss - avg 48 for RPI/BPI, 1 win vs RPI Top 50 and 2 losses vs RPI 150+

If we win tonight, our avg RPI/BPI goes to about 49 and we'd have 5 Top 50 wins which would be more Top 50 wins than anyone in this group. At that point, I think we're in.
 


Rlesterfan said:
He hesitates on Oklahoma and Cal. I agree that Oklahoma has some holes in their resume, and could be at risk if all or most of the bubble teams win today. If think Cal is a lock.
Click to expand...

Cal has 5 RPI top 50 wins, 2 of those wins over rpi 49 Oregon. The committee will probably look at them as 5 good wins reguardless of where oregons rpi lands. I agree CAL is in.

I have no idea why anyone would thinkg St Marys is in...
 


H8IAST8 said:
Id say 3 At Large spots for

Boise St
Middle Tennessee ST
Virginia
Iowa

The only teams that can improve are Iowa and Virginia
Click to expand...

Boise is one of those teams that looks like a great resume, but falls apart some once you look at the actual games. Pretty amazing that there 2 wins over Wyoming are top 75 wins.
 


CAARHawk said:
Some help from the refs with the conference wanting as many teams as possible in the tournament is what I am looking for. Pull a Richmond on MSU!

Before someone gets sanctimonious. Look up "sense of humor."
Click to expand...

**** sense of humor. I'm ok with this scenario period.
 


H8IAST8 said:
Id say 3 At Large spots for

Boise St
Middle Tennessee ST
Virginia
Iowa

The only teams that can improve are Iowa and Virginia
Click to expand...

If that's the case, our resume, theoretically, holds up right now against those 4.
 


The Virginia game is HUGE. Unfortuantely, i dont think NC ST is that great. That being said, i think Virginia needs 2.

EDIT: We really need Miami to beat BC.
 


H8IAST8 said:
The Virginia game is HUGE. Unfortuantely, i dont think NC ST is that great. That being said, i think Virginia needs 2.
Click to expand...

Virginia is the hardest team to figure what the committee will do. The good thing, at this point, is the other teams matter a little less than a few days ago. Iowa fate is in their own hands, beat MSU and they are in. I really believe 100% that tonight is a play in game for Iowa.
 


St Marys is a big bubble. Beat Creighton, lost to UNI who Iowa beat. Thats all they have my friends. They are out.
 












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