B1G Reshuffle: 2011 Big Ten Race Without Pryor

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
With the news late Tuesday afternoon that Terrelle Pryor's playing days at Ohio State are over, it's time to take a second look at the Big Ten for 2011.

Steve Deace and I did a little bit of that last week with this video, and our hypothetical basis was assuming that Pryor was done.

In my May quick look at the Big Ten, I felt Ohio State would beat Michigan State in its league opener at home, lose the next week at Nebraska and win the rest finishing 7-1 in the Big Ten and would go on to defeat Nebraska for the Big Ten title.

Given today's news, I don't feel that way any longer.

Here is their Big Ten schedule:

MICHIGAN STATE: I see this as a tossup to favoring Michigan State now
@Nebraska: LOSS
@Illinois: Another tossup to favoring the opponent. Illinois has played them well in recent years including a near upset last year.
WISCONSIN: Tossup favoring Ohio State..until Wisky answers the question at QB
INDIANA: WIN
@Purdue: WIN
PENN STATE: WIN
@Michigan: I think the Wolverines snap the streak and get the win.

I only see three games where I would be comfortable penciling in wins...and even the Purdue game could be a tussle if they stay healthy to that point....

Could they go 5-3? Yes. Will that be enough to win the division? As many holes as I see in Wisconsin, I think their schedule sets up for a 6-2 league run. They have Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue and Penn State at home, with road games at Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota. Beat the Illini and Gophers on the road and win all of the home games and that punches their ticket to Indianapolis.

From an Iowa perspective, I just don't see that this is good news at all. Since Iowa doesn't play Ohio State this year and three of the teams they will be battling for the Legends Title (Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan) will be playing them, including two of the three getting the Buckeyes at home and all three capable of beating the Buckeyes now, those are games Iowa fans would have rooted for the Buckeyes. They still will, but the chances of Ohio State wins in those games goes down.

Michigan State has to go to The Shoe and they will face a formidable defense. However, they have the ingredients for success; a veteran quarterback, a powerful running game and arguably the most talented receiving group in the Big Ten.

Ohio State's run of six Big Ten titles is going to come to an end, and the league will be spared the embarrassment of Ohio State winning the Leaders but sending the second place team to the first ever Big Ten Championship game.

I still have a few weeks before I put my 'On the Record' predictions down to be scoffed at, but as of right now I am leaning towards a Nebraska vs Wisconsin Big Ten title game with Nebraska avenging an early season loss in Madison to claim the Big Ten title in their first year as a member of the league.
 
If it's an equalizer for the rest of the league then that is not good for Iowa. My point wasnt that I want to play osu this year. It's that Iowa would want those that do play them to lose to them. That is not near as likely now
 
Legends going to be much tougher sledding than Leaders now for sure.

I'd probably list that Penn State game as a toss up.
 
JonDMiller said:
How is it an equalizer for Iowa?
Click to expand...

Well if you consider Nebraska to be the early favorite, they play Wisconsin and Ohio State, a depleted Ohio States makes their out of division slate more equal to ours of Indiana and Purdue - not equal obviously, but more equal.

Ultimately, I think we should just concentrate on beating N'Western.
 
No faith dude. Seriously. Nebby has to travel to Wisky, PSU, and Michigan. Those are totally unfamiliar road games. You seriously think they are going to win all those? I would be surprised if they went 2 out of 3. Those are three really loud stadiums with serious weather issues.

You have totally bought the hype.

Now, MSU is a different story.
 
The big question fo rme is how many more will not play this fall. It could really be a huge blow if 3 or 5 or whatever more leave to cargate happenings.
 
I have a gut feeling (it could just be nausea from thinking about it) that Illinois wins the leaders.

I don't take everything Steve Deace says as gospel, but the one thing he does preach that I vehemently agree with is "You can't hide your quarterback in college football".

Tell me, does anyone here really feel confident in the QB's @ Wisconsin, Penn State, and now, Ohio State? I certainly don't. I think they'll all be average to below average, which, at least in my mind, means they'll be losing some games that they shouldn't. Illinois returns arguably the best QB in that division, 9 of their 11 defensive starters are Jr's or Sr's, & 4 out of 5 of their OL are Jr's & Sr's.

Also, Zook hasn't recruited great the last two seasons because he had a terrible team, but 3-4 years ago, he was pulling some darn good talent. That is going to start to pay off this year.

I hate Ron Zook with a passion, but Illinois pounded Penn State last year, they always play OSU tough (and they get OSU at home), & Wisconsin is a home game for them. They also miss Nebraska, Iowa, & MSU from the Legends division (arguably the top 3 teams in that division).

I could see a 9-3 Illinois team playing in the Big Ten CCG.

The Legends is far more difficult for me to predict, but my pick, and I'm going on record with this after this Pryor news, is that Illinois wins the Leaders Division.

And trust me, as Iowa fans, the last thing we want to see is a successful Illinois program, but I just have a bad feeling this is Illinois' year.
 
If Wisconsin get Russell Wilson, that is another for-sure L for OSU ... and Wiscy is in the title game
 
Re: u can't hide your QB talk.... You realize that EVERYONE in the B10 is saying the same thing about Iowa? The league is WAY down this yr and sadly the door for neb is wide open, which is sad b/c they were a 4th or 5th place team last yr. If it happens be prepared to meet the most arrogant and annoying fan base in college football
 
As Jon said, this is bad for us. We needed them to beat some teams, and now it (likely)ain't gonna happen.
 
MoseSchrute said:
As Jon said, this is bad for us. We needed them to beat some teams, and now it (likely)ain't gonna happen.
Click to expand...

NO - WE NEED TO BEAT SOME TEAMS.

Beat JNW and Sota last year and we are talking about a 9 win season. With a bowl win giving us a 10th victory.

Beat JNW and the game at Kinnick against OSU is still about playing for the Big 10 championship the next weekend.

This idea that we need help when we can't even beat JNW or Minnesota and were as lucky as a team could get to get out of Bloomington Frickin Indiana with a win is insane.

We need to beat teams. I promise if we go into Lincoln, NE 5-2 in the Big Ten, that we'll be playing for a trip to Indy.
 
03bizHawk said:
Re: u can't hide your QB talk.... You realize that EVERYONE in the B10 is saying the same thing about Iowa? The league is WAY down this yr and sadly the door for neb is wide open, which is sad b/c they were a 4th or 5th place team last yr. If it happens be prepared to meet the most arrogant and annoying fan base in college football
Click to expand...

I'll gladly take Iowa's 4th yr JR at QB over what Wisconsin, Penn State, or Ohio State have heading into this season any day of the week.

Iowa probably is sitting in a better spot for a QB transition than we ever have been under KF. Vandenberg has the physical tools and he has the experience in the system.

Wisconsin has no one. Absolutely no one.

Ohio State will likely start a 9th year SR in Bauserman (who has never been good enough to start there) or a true freshmen in Braxton Miller - definitely not a good situation there.

McGloin @ PSU is a walk on QB, and admittedly, he isn't terrible, but he is wildly inconsistent & has a poor OL in front of him.

I'd say Iowa is sitting much better @ QB than any of the aforementioned 3 teams.
 
Before the NFL early declarations, I had Illinois #2 in the Leaders...then they lost their three best players.
 
I would guess Braxton Miller gets the call...he looked the best at the spring game...and he also is more familiar with the style of offense OSU ran last year...played a lot of spread, zone read in HS.
 
Raziel said:
I have a gut feeling (it could just be nausea from thinking about it) that Illinois wins the leaders.

I don't take everything Steve Deace says as gospel, but the one thing he does preach that I vehemently agree with is "You can't hide your quarterback in college football".

Tell me, does anyone here really feel confident in the QB's @ Wisconsin, Penn State, and now, Ohio State? I certainly don't. I think they'll all be average to below average, which, at least in my mind, means they'll be losing some games that they shouldn't. Illinois returns arguably the best QB in that division, 9 of their 11 defensive starters are Jr's or Sr's, & 4 out of 5 of their OL are Jr's & Sr's.

Also, Zook hasn't recruited great the last two seasons because he had a terrible team, but 3-4 years ago, he was pulling some darn good talent. That is going to start to pay off this year.

I hate Ron Zook with a passion, but Illinois pounded Penn State last year, they always play OSU tough (and they get OSU at home), & Wisconsin is a home game for them. They also miss Nebraska, Iowa, & MSU from the Legends division (arguably the top 3 teams in that division).

I could see a 9-3 Illinois team playing in the Big Ten CCG.

The Legends is far more difficult for me to predict, but my pick, and I'm going on record with this after this Pryor news, is that Illinois wins the Leaders Division.

And trust me, as Iowa fans, the last thing we want to see is a successful Illinois program, but I just have a bad feeling this is Illinois' year.
Click to expand...

I'll grant you that Illinois will likely NOT suck serious dogs. However, one thing that is typically true is that implementing new schemes on D usually can be done much more quickly than implementing new schemes on O. In that respect, that very logic suggests that Illinois should be a better team on O. However, such improvement also is rather dependent on whether their RBs can step up and fill the void left by LeShoure.

However, back to the D. You see, the very same logic suggests that part of the Illini's early success was a combined result of good coaching, very good talent on the field, and the "element of surprise" since few opposing B10 Os EARLY IN THE SEASON had good tape on the Illini D. As you may have noticed ... opposing Os made adjustments in the latter part of the season and the Illini D looked absolutely awful at times.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that Northwestern would have beaten the Illini had Persa not been injured. And, in such a case, the Illini never would have gone bowling. Furthermore, in such a case and had the Illinois economy not been in the crapper ... Zook would have been given his walking papers. But again, I digress ....

Again, concerning their D, not only do opposing B10 Os have a better idea of what to expect from the Illini D schematically, but also the Illini lost several of their best defenders from the front 7. Given that the tOSU O will still have the personnel to "grind the ball" ... that suggests to me that the Illini still might not be able to pull of a W in that game.

Anyhow, while I think that the Illini O will take a step or two forward statistically .... I similarly anticipate that their D will take a step or two backwards statistically. As a result, I could easily see the Illini being anything from mediocre to being somewhat decent. It would genuinely take a best case scenario for the Illini to be a legit power in the Big 10 in '11. While the Illini are likely capable of being competitive with most of their opponents ... I really doubt that a best-case scenario will be realized.
 
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