Are we good emough

kicker22

Well-Known Member
I guess my thought is i worry more about the beginning of the season than I do what's at the end simply because generally we figure things out over the course of the season and continually improve and peak at the end of the year.

I keep reading comments about the possibility of looking past Maryland and I don't think that will be the case. WIth a short week I think there will be so much prep work for Maryland done that they won't have a chance to really think about PSU let alone get ahead of themselves. I'm not a fan of Friday games, but the short week IMO may help us avoid looking past Maryland to PSU and will also give us an extra day to prep for PSU once we get past Friday.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
I have a bad feeling this is an 8-4 or 9-3 club, which is fine, but you jabronis are going to be all butthurt once we drop a few. Maryland and Wisconsin are toss ups. PSU is about 80% chance of a gut wrenching loss. I still haven't seen anyone from Iowa successfully cover Bell from Purdue. 50/50 game there. Nebraska will throw a Super Bowl level preparation and performance at us. We should obliterate Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois, but the annals of Kirk Ferentz history are loaded with stories of teams we should have destroyed only to lose 17-15 type of games.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
I have a bad feeling this is an 8-4 or 9-3 club, which is fine, but you jabronis are going to be all butthurt once we drop a few.
Correct. All the Skittle shitters on this board talking natty appearances are going to be committing seppuku and saying how this team is the worst one in history after we (probably) lose to Penn State.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
Correct. All the Skittle shitters on this board talking natty appearances are going to be committing seppuku and saying how this team is the worst one in history after we (probably) lose to Penn State.

There are a lot of teams that look bad right now, but Clemson has an ACC schedule and the 121st ranked offense (ours is 122nd) and they are talking about being ecstatic if Dabo manages to get out of this season with double digit wins in the 14 games they hope to play (conference title game and bowl). I know we play a field position game, but unless this team can muster enough offense to get up to the 60's or 70's, which it may be able to assuming we have a quantum leap on the line, at WR and a little more consistency out of the QB, we are going to be 9-3 at best.

Clemson has a ton of 4 and 5 stars on defense and they are decent, but on Saturday they lost TOP 42-18. That is what happens when you have an offense ranked in the 120's and are playing even middling P5 competition. You can get lucky with defense and ST a few games, but you can't rely on it and if you have games with sub 20 minutes TOP your defense is gonna be terrible in the 4th quarter. Even the good teams we had in 2003 and 2004 that relied on defense were able to get a little bit of offense going and keep the defense off the field, but the way we have looked the past two Saturdays, we are going to have big issues sustaining drives against every team left on our schedule except maybe Northwestern.
 

HawkGold

Well-Known Member
Correct. All the Skittle shitters on this board talking natty appearances are going to be committing seppuku and saying how this team is the worst one in history after we (probably) lose to Penn State.
The team is so ridiculously close to being a playoff team, but the weaknesses that prevent that are way beyond normal. 50 some yards rushing against CSU.

The Bunnies had 460 yards against CSU and 240 yards rushing.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
The team is so ridiculously close to being a playoff team, but the weaknesses that prevent that are way beyond normal. 50 some yards rushing against CSU.

What team is ridiculously close? This Iowa team? We are the beneficiaries of recency bias in human polls. We beat Indiana, who was then ranked, and moved up. We beat ISU, who was then ranked, and moved up. We have not beaten a currently ranked team. Even if this Iowa team has the magic touch and gets every lucky bounce from now until Black Friday, this team is absolutely not going to beat the best of Michigan, PSU or OSU in a neutral field game in Indy in December. We are probably the 3rd, 4th or 5th best team in the conference.
 

HawkGold

Well-Known Member
What team is ridiculously close? This Iowa team? We are the beneficiaries of recency bias in human polls. We beat Indiana, who was then ranked, and moved up. We beat ISU, who was then ranked, and moved up. We have not beaten a currently ranked team. Even if this Iowa team has the magic touch and gets every lucky bounce from now until Black Friday, this team is absolutely not going to beat the best of Michigan, PSU or OSU in a neutral field game in Indy in December. We are probably the 3rd, 4th or 5th best team in the conference.
Top notch D. Top notch kicking game. This team will have it's share of Sunday linemen. Good enough RB. Only a decent QB (one that is dual threat) and a top end receiver. Have that and yes, there would be a high likelihood of CFP. Teams are overplaying the RB and QB. Fitz would likely say the same thing and is likely the coach that critiqued Iowa. He will feast on Iowa as is.

OSU is beatable. UM hasn't proven anything (not as much as Iowa). Neither has PSU either.

Look how close the 2015 was. This team is better where it would be needed, minus CJ and a top WR.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
2015's schedule was Charmin Ultra Soft, and a whole bunch of those games were within 1 score. Apples/Oranges

And CJ Beathard, the gun slinging QB on that team, has started 12 games in the National Football League, the most of any Iowa QB bince Charles Long. I'm not gonna shit on Petras, but he ain't CJ Beathard.
 

Hawkfnntn

Well-Known Member
I'd say we are as close as any team not called Bama or GA atm. Feels like in the BIG it'll be either PSU IA and that just remains to be seen. There's a lot to sort out yet.

Question is could a 1 loss Iowa team if they win the BIG title game get in? Say we lose to either PSU or Wisky and not a MD or Northwestern bad loss. That would take some dominos from around the country to fall our way but it's probably not likely. But heck if I know this is shaping up to be a weird year.
 

NCHawker

Well-Known Member
I have a bad feeling this is an 8-4 or 9-3 club, which is fine, but you jabronis are going to be all butthurt once we drop a few. Maryland and Wisconsin are toss ups. PSU is about 80% chance of a gut wrenching loss. I still haven't seen anyone from Iowa successfully cover Bell from Purdue. 50/50 game there. Nebraska will throw a Super Bowl level preparation and performance at us. We should obliterate Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois, but the annals of Kirk Ferentz history are loaded with stories of teams we should have destroyed only to lose 17-15 type of games.

I can't disagree. This offense just won't get the team to 10 wins. At some point against a team with some semblance of offensive competence the D will just get tired. First I'm thinking PSU. They'll score some points. on the other end of the spectrum, Wisconsin's defense is very good and Iowa will only move the ball by passing... like ND...but can it?

Nebraska will be a rock fight. Purdue ... I duno.

So much of what I read here presumes that no team can score more than 24 because, its been awhile since a team did that. That streak will probably come to an end sometime soon.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
I'd say we are as close as any team not called Bama or GA atm. Feels like in the BIG it'll be either PSU IA and that just remains to be seen. There's a lot to sort out yet.

Question is could a 1 loss Iowa team if they win the BIG title game get in? Say we lose to either PSU or Wisky and not a MD or Northwestern bad loss. That would take some dominos from around the country to fall our way but it's probably not likely. But heck if I know this is shaping up to be a weird year.
If we beat Maryland I'm halfway on board, if we beat MD and PSU then I'm all the way on board with the idea of winning the West and making a NY6, but not a playoff berth. I don't see any West team beating OSU when all the chips are on the table. Primetime, millions of viewers, against a team with 3 layers of depth at every position. We have 3 guys who would start on that OSU team and one of them is a punter. Is OSU at Alabama's level? No way. But they're still a tier above us.

And what people don't understand is that this atrocious offense can't be carried for 12 games by the defense. Just sheer probability says that at some point our D is going to lay an egg and we will need a bunch of points against a B1G team to win a game. It's just not in the cards unless we get a consistent rushing game going and get the ball downfield in the passing game.
 

Hawkfnntn

Well-Known Member
If we beat Maryland I'm halfway on board, if we beat MD and PSU then I'm all the way on board with the idea of winning the West and making a NY6, but not a playoff berth. I don't see any West team beating OSU when all the chips are on the table. Primetime, millions of viewers, against a team with 3 layers of depth at every position. We have 3 guys who would start on that OSU team and one of them is a punter. Is OSU at Alabama's level? No way. But they're still a tier above us.

And what people don't understand is that this atrocious offense can't be carried for 12 games by the defense. Just sheer probability says that at some point our D is going to lay an egg and we will need a bunch of points against a B1G team to win a game. It's just not in the cards unless we get a consistent rushing game going and get the ball downfield in the passing game.
Oh I don't disagree with your take on the lack of O and trying to have the defense keep doing what they are. It's beyond ridiculous. I mean hell knock on wood our D even stays healthy most of the season. We are still just getting started. But yeah say we beat MD and beat PSU it's almost all downhill from there to Indy (as crazy as that is to think)

Call me crazy but OSU doesn't scare me this yr from what I've watched of them. MN I think stinks this yr and they gave them all they could handle for much of that game. OSU is in a bit of a transition with new QB some new pieces on D and all. Yeah their skill guys WRs and RBs are athletes but they don't seem to be gelling as a team just yet anyway. PSU scares me more and maybe I'm misguided with that. (Michigan I thought might be a threat too until the 2nd half of that Rutgers game that was beyond ugly)
 

kicker22

Well-Known Member
If we beat Maryland I'm halfway on board, if we beat MD and PSU then I'm all the way on board with the idea of winning the West and making a NY6, but not a playoff berth. I don't see any West team beating OSU when all the chips are on the table. Primetime, millions of viewers, against a team with 3 layers of depth at every position. We have 3 guys who would start on that OSU team and one of them is a punter. Is OSU at Alabama's level? No way. But they're still a tier above us.

And what people don't understand is that this atrocious offense can't be carried for 12 games by the defense. Just sheer probability says that at some point our D is going to lay an egg and we will need a bunch of points against a B1G team to win a game. It's just not in the cards unless we get a consistent rushing game going and get the ball downfield in the passing game.
I think you nailed it. Winning the West and a playoff birth are not one in the same. Both are fantastic scenarios but with our offensive ineptitudes so far, one may be possible but the other is an absolute dream at this point. That's not saying the offense can't progress as the season goes on, but at some point our defense and special teams are going to need them to carry some of the weight.
 

kicker22

Well-Known Member
Oh I don't disagree with your take on the lack of O and trying to have the defense keep doing what they are. It's beyond ridiculous. I mean hell knock on wood our D even stays healthy most of the season. We are still just getting started. But yeah say we beat MD and beat PSU it's almost all downhill from there to Indy (as crazy as that is to think)

Call me crazy but OSU doesn't scare me this yr from what I've watched of them. MN I think stinks this yr and they gave them all they could handle for much of that game. OSU is in a bit of a transition with new QB some new pieces on D and all. Yeah their skill guys WRs and RBs are athletes but they don't seem to be gelling as a team just yet anyway. PSU scares me more and maybe I'm misguided with that. (Michigan I thought might be a threat too until the 2nd half of that Rutgers game that was beyond ugly)

My concern with OSU is the positions that are struggling right now are the one's in which they've reloaded. A lot on here are saying that our Oline is young and will continue to grow and I believe that to an extent, but OSU's entire team is going to continue to grow and get better. I think the OSU we see now is going to be what we expect from OSU come September.

Michigan is Michigan. How many times have we seen them take off like this only to do what they do best in recent years and fall back down to earth.
 

HawkGold

Well-Known Member
What team is ridiculously close? This Iowa team? We are the beneficiaries of recency bias in human polls. We beat Indiana, who was then ranked, and moved up. We beat ISU, who was then ranked, and moved up. We have not beaten a currently ranked team. Even if this Iowa team has the magic touch and gets every lucky bounce from now until Black Friday, this team is absolutely not going to beat the best of Michigan, PSU or OSU in a neutral field game in Indy in December. We are probably the 3rd, 4th or 5th best team in the conference.
We are a couple of developing players from number 1. The QB can improve....some. Receivers not so much that isn't on the qb.
 

Stanzi

Well-Known Member
If we can beat Maryland on the road I will have a lot more confidence. They have a good QB and some good WR. Better than any of the teams we've played so far. It would be nice though to see our offense have a breakout game.
 
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